Forwarders will gain as Europe accelerates global trade agreements, says DHL
Opportunities are in the offing for forwarders and logistics operators, as the EU and the ...
© Wanlop Phuengyoi
President Trump-induced tariff policies appear to be having the opposite impact on global supply chains than predicted, with regionalisation going into reverse this year according to DHL’s Global Connectedness Index.
Released at an event attended by The Loadstar, the index indicates that trade was not only occurring over longer distances, but had hit a record high in the first half of the year.
“If trade was becoming more regionalised, we’d think it would happen over shorter distances, because regional trade is short-distance trade,” said the report’s author, Steven Altman, of New York University’s Stern Business School.
“To the contrary, the average distance trade is traversing has been rising, and we hit a new record long distance in the first half of 2025, of 4,990km.”
Per the index’s tracker feature, it is possible to zoom in on specific trades, and perhaps unsurprisingly, the return of Donald Trump to the White House had a marked effect, with US shippers rapidly shifting trade from China as soon as his re-election was confirmed.
This, Mr Altman noted, pointed to the responsiveness and flexibility of importers, most not waiting even for his inauguration, or the announcement of tariffs, to act.
“From this, we are able to track where they are turning for alternative sourcing,” he said and, instead of getting closer to home, US shippers pivoted to South-east Asia, particularly Vietnam, which experienced a sharp uptick.
Nor was that broadening of sourcing limited to China-US flows, the tracker showing a rising share of sub-Saharan African imports coming from China.
“Of course, you could choose any pairs of countries or regions; I thought it was interesting to see that there’s been an even more notable acceleration in the share of South Africa’s imports coming from India recently,” Mr Altman continued.
“It is important to note, though, that a lot of this depends on where you draw regional boundaries, but trade within regions hit a new low this year, of 50.7%.
“However, there has been a lot of interest recently in near-shoring and the possibility of moving production to closer to customers, which could lead to more regionalised trade patterns in the future – but, for now, the opposite is true.”
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