Inside the early warning system of global trade, according to Alan Murphy

If you see Sea Intelligence’s Alan Murphy named on a conference programme, you inwardly cheer and rush to get a good seat. (Better still, is to find him in a bar afterwards) But in a world without bars or events, perhaps the next best thing is to read an interview with him.

Here, he explains the importance of blank sailing data as an indicator; about how one-quarter of carriers would be bankrupt now if the market had not already slimmed down; how there have been four stages of shipping in Covid – starting with Chinese new year to “the calm before the storm” period we are in now. “We’ve basically had four Chinese new years in one year.”

And how he is bearish on 2020, bullish on 2021. But that is tempered by this statement: “Anyone claiming to know with certainty where this will go, has merely proven how little they know.”

The interview, in American Shipper, is well worth a read.