Ever-ambitious DSV 'messaging positively into Q2 print'
Its ‘halo has slipped’, the ‘reliable execution machine has been sputtering’, but…
The global contract logistics market is predicted to breach the $300bn mark this year for the first time in its history, driven by growth in the Asia-Pacific region, according to a new report from Transport Intelligence (Ti).
Ti’s Global Contract Logistics 2025 report forecasts that the global contract logistics market will grow 3.3% this year to reach €305.4bn, up over 2024’s €295.6bn.
“While slightly below the CAGR of the previous four-year period, this figure suggests continued, albeit slower, expansion in the contract logistics sector.
“The moderation in growth likely reflects a maturing global market environment, with inflationary pressures and stabilising demand after the pandemic-driven volatility,” the report states.
However, it also warned that this year’s headwinds could dent market growth: the global contract logistics market is likely to face slower growth in response to rising trade tensions and heightened policy uncertainty, as these factors disrupt cross-border supply chains, delay investment decisions, and reduce demand for outsourced logistics services.
“A downgrade in global GDP growth, particularly in trade-dependent sectors such as manufacturing and retail, directly constrains volumes handled by contract logistics providers.
“While structural trends like ecommerce and supply chain reconfiguration (eg nearshoring) may offer pockets of resilience, overall global contract logistics market growth in 2025 is forecast to be slightly weaker,” it added.
Globally, the market remains dominated by three regions – Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America – which collectively account for 93% of contract logistics operations, with Asia-Pacific increasingly leading the way with a forecast growth this year of 5.9% to a total €116.2bn, while North America is expected to grow 2.1% year-on-year and Europe 1.3%.
Source: Transport Intelligence
“The gap between Asia Pacific and the other two major regions is therefore set to widen, underlining Asia’s continuing role as the global growth engine for logistics demand, likely driven by ongoing ecommerce expansion, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing activity,” the report says.
And while China continues to the largest market in the Asia-Pacific region, it is India which has shown the strongest growth rates, “underpinned by economic growth, domestic consumption, and government-led infrastructure initiatives”, and is forecast to record a 12.8% CAGR through to 2029 when it will be worth €25.4bn, eclipsing Japan as Asia’s second-largest contract logistics market.
For comparison, Europe’s largest CL market – Germany – is forecast to have total value of €21.4bn by 2029, closely followed by the UK at €21.2bn, with Ti noting that market growth in Europe at relatively flat 1% CAGR reflects its maturity.
Meanwhile, the North America market is expected to grow 2.3% this year, a “moderate” growth that “indicates a stable market, with expansion driven by ongoing demand from ecommerce, retail, and manufacturing sectors”.
Of the three main contract logistics service types – distribution, warehousing, and value-added services – it is the former that remains the main revenue earner for operators.
Source: Transport Intelligence
In terms of company market share as measured by revenue, DHL is still by far the largest operator, with revenues around 70% higher than second-placed GXO.
Source: Transport Intelligence
Maersk has been moving up the rankings since 2022 thanks to a sustained M&A spree, particularly in North America, while Kuehne + Nagel has slipped.
However, Ti also noted that with DSV’s acquisition of DB Schenker now complete, it is expected to leapfrog from tenth to fourth place as it integrates the German 3PL’s contract logistics operations which, almost alone amongst European firms, has a strong presence in Asia.
“Given the acquisition by DSV of DB Schenker, we estimate combined contract logistics revenues of circa €6.1bn, positioning DSV as the fourth largest contract logistics player,” it said.
Comment on this article