The Loadstar Leader: Fuel prices set to come down – just as BAFs are set to soar
If – and in this context, “if” is the biggest word in the English language ...
Rotterdam’s throughput held broadly steady in the first quarter, but early signs of disruption from the Strait of Hormuz closure are beginning to cast a shadow over the months ahead.
Europe’s largest port revealed today that it handled 103m tonnes in the first three months of the year, compared with 103.7m tonnes in the same period of 2025. This slight decline, of 0.7%, was largely due to weaker dry bulk volumes and mounting geopolitical uncertainty, offsetting gains in containers and liquid bulk.
Port of Rotterdam Authority CEO Boudewijn Siemons believed the figures reflected resilience, despite a volatile backdrop.
“Throughput at the port of Rotterdam remained largely stable in the first quarter of 2026, despite growing geopolitical tensions,” he said, warning that disruption linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could become more visible later in the year.
While Rotterdam depends on the Gulf region for roughly 10% of crude oil throughput and 14% of oil products, the immediate impact has so far been limited. However, diverted tankers and rising energy prices are expected to weigh on second-quarter volumes.
Indeed, Hanna Steitzl, director of containers at the port, told The Loadstar in mid-March that the direct exposure of container flows to the Middle East disruption had – at that point – been minimal, but warned of broader knock-on effects.
“Global volatility hits arrival patterns first, and that has a ripple effect on everything that happens later… the chain will react with delays,” she explained.
“First, services are suspended, then port calls will shift, and later we will see if there’s an impact. There’s no clear picture yet on what effects it will have, and it depends entirely on how long the situation will last and how quickly the carriers can rebuild stable rotations.”
Ms Steitzl added that while volumes in Rotterdam linked directly to the Gulf were small and could be replaced by demand from other regions, the wider consequences were harder to predict.
“I do not think that in terms of volume, this will have a large effect on Rotterdam. However, the ripple effects and the effects on the chain – on cost, etc – is what we’re very worried about.”
She explained that while “Suez is more about logistics”, Hormuz is “very much about energy”.
“Together, they disrupt flows, and both will have effect. Higher fuel costs can lead to higher consumer prices, and that increase will definitely have an impact on the GDP and consumer spending. And the longer it takes, the more effect there will be.”
In the container segment, throughput rose 0.3% in teu terms, although tonnage fell 3.2%, partly due to a surge in empty box exports to Asia. Volumes were also held back by a terminal operating system update at one of the port’s major facilities.
Dry bulk throughput fell 4.3% overall, with agribulk down 20.9% and coal declining 9.8%, following unusually strong volumes last year. By contrast, liquid bulk rose 2.2%, supported by higher oil product and LNG volumes, reinforcing Rotterdam’s role as a key European energy hub.
Inside the industry’s AI shift
Complete The Loadstar’s ‘State of AI in the Supply Chain’ survey — and receive the full report and data before release.
Comment on this article