News / Cargo carriers split on freighter strategy as Boeing delays extend

Photo: © Karaboux | Dreamstime.com

Cargo carriers are increasingly diverging on long-term fleet strategy as Boeing delays deepen, forcing ageing freighters into longer service alongside a growing need for larger cargo aircraft. 

Cargolux chief executive Richard Forson told The Loadstar the Luxembourg carrier’s Boeing 777-8F deliveries had slipped from 2027 to 2029, forcing the airline to evaluate interim capacity options while remaining committed to Boeing.  

“We are a Boeing operator,” he said, explaining that operating a mixed Airbus and Boeing fleet “really makes no sense” for an airline of Cargolux’s size.  

His comments highlight a widening divide in the freighter market, some operators remaining committed to Boeing’s delayed 777-8F programme while others pivot aggressively toward Airbus’s rival 350F. 

Atlas Air earlier this year placed a landmark order for 20 A350Fs, becoming its largest customer and securing early delivery positions as replacement freighter capacity tightens. 

The strategy split is emerging as airlines face growing uncertainty over how to replace ageing widebody fleets just as AI infrastructure – and a need for larger freighters – becomes one of the market’s fastest-growing cargo segments. 

Flexport said in a webinar this month that AI infrastructure accounted for roughly 15% of air cargo demand growth last year and was expanding at nearly 50% annually, believing it would “most likely supercede ecommerce as the biggest driver” of freight demand.  

The forwarder warned that AI server rack shipments were already creating “cramps on direct capacity” on major tradelanes including Taiwan-US and China-US.  

It also noted that some AI server racks were now so large they increasingly required 747 freighters. 

“Server racks used to be around eight feet tall… now… nine feet,” Flexport said, adding they were increasingly dependent on 747Fs.  

That creates a growing contradiction for the market: demand for large freighters is rising just as replacement aircraft availability tightens and older four-engine aircraft become more expensive to operate. 

And IBA warned in a webinar this week that widebody freighter feedstock was likely to remain constrained “for the rest of the decade”, with Boeing’s delayed 777-9 passenger programme preventing older 777-300ERs from entering the conversion market.  

“The feedstock is stuck in the passenger market,” the consultancy said, adding that the 777-9 delays had effectively created “seven years of extra life” for passenger 777-300ERs that would otherwise have been freighter-conversion candidates.  

At the same time, the consultancy noted that, “for the first time since 2009”, widebody freighter conversions had exceeded narrowbody conversions, reflecting strong demand for larger long-haul cargo aircraft.  

The market is also facing fresh geopolitical pressure. 

IBA said international cargo traffic in the Middle East had fallen sharply since March, while rates were running roughly 36% above last year’s levels because of disruption and higher fuel costs.  

“Four-engine aircraft are seeing margins being squeezed,” the consultancy warned.  

Yet operators may have little choice but to continue flying them. 

Mr Forson acknowledged that even ageing freighters, such as MD-11Fs, were continuing to operate because demand remained strong enough to justify their economics, adding: “Provided that there is shortage of capacity or an excess of demand to move goods by air, all the aircraft will continue to fly.”

The result is a freighter market increasingly split between airlines prioritising fleet commonality and those seeking earlier replacement capacity wherever it becomes available. 

And with AI infrastructure demand accelerating, pressure on large widebody freighters may intensify long before the next generation of aircraft finally arrives.