Spot rates surge again as carriers push through fresh July hikes
A series of container freight spot rate hikes and general rate increases implemented on 15 ...
Demand is weakening and freight rates are under pressure on the Asia-Latin America west coast trade, and amid an uncertain outlook carriers are positioning themselves in different ways.
Zim Line appears to be on the brink of closing its standalone Asia-South America west coast ZAT service.
The string originally deployed 11 ships of 4,250 teu capacity on a weekly port rotation of Tianjin-Qingdao-Ningbo-Xiamen-Da Chan Bay-Buenaventura-Guayaquil-Callao-San Antonio.
However, the service has not seen a ship depart China since week 6, in mid-February, the last days of loading before Chinese New Year began. Indeed, according to Linerlytica, every sailing through to the end of May is scheduled to be blanked and the carrier’s web booking portal lists its most recent sailing as the February departure of Navios Devotion from Tianjin.
According to Xeneta’s eeSea liner database, the most recent iteration of the ZAT had just six ships assigned, and all have been assigned to other Zim services – half of them, including Navios Devotion, now on Zim’s South America east coast-US east coast ZGT service, launched in cooperation with ONE in January.
In turn, ONE appears set to fill the vacancy left by Zim on the Asia-Latin America west coast trade with the planned upgrade of its Asia-Mexico AX4 service, operated in conjunction with HMM (which markets it as the FLX), which will extend its port rotation to include calls at Guayaquil and Callao this month.
The service deploys seven ships with an average capacity of 5,000 teu on a 49-day round trip, although the greater sailing distances into South America will likely necessitate the addition of more vessels.
Whether that capacity is required is another matter – with both demand and spot freight rates showing considerable variations.
According to the latest Container Trades Statistics data, 280,000 teu was transported on the Greater China-South America west coast trade in January and February, compared with 232,000 teu the year before. This represents 20.3% year-on-year growth (the first months of the year have been combined to take out the effect of Chinese New Year falling in different weeks in 2025 and 2026).
While that underscored the structural growth seen on the trade over the past couple of years, according to Platts’ freight rate commentary from 10 April, forwarders are reporting demand has been weak in the weeks since the latest CTS data, and spot rates are eroding.
“Volumes remain light, limiting carriers’ ability to defend higher rates. Early‑week talk of a potential mid‑month GRI briefly emerged, but confidence behind the increase faded quickly as buying interest failed to materialise. By week‑end, the market was already trending lower,” it said.
However, spot rate levels are also varying wildly. Platts’ North Asia to WCSA (PCR29 ) route ended last week at $2,500 per 40ft, which it described as “stable week over week, although underlying spot sentiment softened as downward pressure increased”.
It added: “According to one logistics source, China-based agents were actively circulating lower levels in the market, giving further traction to customer negotiation attempts to push spot pricing downward.”
Indeed, unsolicited spot rate quotes from Chinese forwarders received by The Loadstar suggest shippers can get substantial discounts in the second half of April, with a rate of $2,100 per 40ft offered from China to Callao and San Antonio, and $2,200 per 40ft to Chancay.
At the other end of the scale, spot rates from the Freightos terminal show some strengthening, currently averaging $4,574 per 40ft, up around 10% from the week before and considerably up from the beginning of the year, when it stood at just over $3,000.
However, on the west coast of South America itself, shipping networks are set to undergo quite a change this year, due to the development of Cosco’s new Peruvian hub at Chancay.
It officially began operations in late 2024 and, over the course of 2025-early 2026, the Chinese carrier has increased the capacity it offers to shippers using the port.
According to eeSea, in March the monthly slot capacity offered was 130,000 teu, compared with 93,000 teu the year before, and it now boasts three Asia-South America west coast services and three feeder strings – which are, of course, all Cosco’s, with contributions from its Ocean Alliance partners.
Following the decision of Cosco to cease calling at Panama’s Balboa port, following the well-documented breakdown of relations between Panama and China, the Chinese carrier will need a substitute Pacific transhipment facility – and where better than the one it has just built?
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