News / No Red Sea-scale shock yet from Gulf closure, but pressure is building

The closure of key Gulf shipping routes has yet to trigger a shock on the scale of the Red Sea crisis, but early signs of disruption are already rippling across global supply chains, according to DHL Global Forwarding. 

Speaking during an update yesterday, DHL Global Forwarding warned that while the immediate impact remains contained, pressure is building across ports and equipment flows. 

“What we try to show here on the map is basically the whole upper Gulf is closed… No container vessels are moving… they’re all anchored or in ports,” said Jacob Moe, global head of FCL and trade management at DHL GF. 

Mr Moe highlighted alternative hubs such as Khor Fakkan, Jeddah and Salalah, although underscored these lack the scale and infrastructure of major regional gateways like Jebel Ali. 

“It’s not impossible to get in but it’s complicated,” he noted. 

Indeed, head of research at Freightos Judah Levine told The Loadstar:  “We’re starting to see kind of a recovery but certainly the [port] alternatives are not set up for this, so Jebel Ali is that major port, that’s the one that’s missing and it’s the alternatives that are not set up for this and are being the stopgap measure for now.” 

Further, the reliance on road freight networks to get goods from these alternative ports to their intended destination has seen reports of customs backlogs and limited trucking supply that are lengthening clearance times. 

Corridors connecting Oman, Fujairah and Saudi Arabia are reportedly experiencing a shortage of trucks, tightening timelines for stranded and in‑transit cargo seeking alternatives to ocean and air. 

However, Mr Levine – who will be featured on Monday’s Loadstar News in Brief podcast –  added that, operationally, knock-on congestion at other ports impacting other non-Gulf trade lanes has not yet emerged.  

“There was concern that big trans-ship hubs like in Sri Lanka or Malaysia would have to absorb all these Middle East volumes and kind of overwhelm and cause congestion there. We haven’t really heard about that. There’s certainly congestion at various ports, but a lot of that was pre-existing,” explained Mr Levine.  

He added: “We are seeing congestion in places like those ports in Western India that are now becoming hubs, and that will disrupt and cause delays for shippers in that region. But on the main trade lanes, operationally, really things are continuing unabated.” 

Unlike the Red Sea crisis, which immediately forced widespread rerouting around Africa, DHL also iterated that “the global impact on trade [due to the closure of Hormuz] short term from that perspective is not as big as it was with Red Sea”. 

However, it is clear the “butterfly effects” are beginning to intensify the longer the closure lasts.  

“We start seeing the sailings being rerouted,” Mr Moe warned, adding that port congestion in the ports that were supposed to feed more into the Gulf is beginning to show.  

The disruption is also beginning to affect equipment availability, with “some container empty challenges that are happening in certain markets”.  

“Now, if we take lessons learned from the previous times, then this will start spilling over to other trades,” Mr Moe said, and suggested the potential for wider spillover if the conflict persists. 

The key variable remains duration. As DHL GF surmised, the longer the disruption continues, the greater the likelihood that today’s localised bottlenecks evolve into broader global supply chain disruption. 

Mr Levine also urged that “the big impact” is the cost and availability of oil, that he noted would impact all trades, not just those related to the Gulf region.