News / US tariff reset sparks rush orders, but last year’s surge unlikely to be repeated

Logistics providers are bracing themselves for spikes in traffic caused by the latest tariff shift from the US, but these increases are not expected to equal last year’s surges triggered by Washington’s tariff slalom.

The US Supreme Court’s ruling that put an end to tariffs implemented under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and the administration’s announcement to pivot to other legislative tools flanked by a sweeping 10% tariff on imports, have plunged cargo owners and logistics providers back into a state of heightened uncertainty and will likely cause postponement of business plans.

“A lot of shippers will now be throwing out sourcing strategies they just spent the past six months building,” remarked Paul Brashier, VP global supply chain at ITS Logistics.

In its assessment of the situation Moody’s predicted that supplier negotiations would be more short-term and adversarial.

On the other hand, the 150-day window for the new tariff is expected to trigger moves by US importers and international shippers to rush in goods before permanent tariffs, likely higher, come into effect.

“I am expecting to see an increase in bookings during this period. Importers fear the unknown… as they should. They won’t want to risk what comes after the 150 days. I expect it to be an across-the-board general increase with no particular trade lane standing out,” commented Erik Rosica, sales supervisor at forwarder OEC Group New York.

Michael Caney, chief commercial officer at Highway, expects shippers to place orders either to pull in inventory or to get a boost in consumer spending prompted by the demise of IEEPA tariffs.

“Either way there’ll be a spike in orders,” he concluded.

Judah Levine, head of research at Feightos, also expects a boost in traffic from the 150-day tariff interlude, but predicted that front-loading volumes would not be as high as seen last year.

“For many shippers, the relatively modest tariff reduction for most countries including China and Vietnam may not be enough to trigger a significant pull forward,” he explained.

“Where the 15% rate represents a meaningful reduction – like for Brazil – we see a quick increase in volumes. And a five-percentage point reduction for tariffs on goods out of China and Vietnam may be enough to spur frontloading by some shippers, meaning we may see some signs of increased demand,” he continued.

He added that the US president is facing political headwinds which may well cause him to tread cautiously ahead of mid-term elections to avoid the opposition controlling both chambers of Congress, a scenario that may cause shippers to adopt a wait-and-see stance for the time being.

Brazil was hit with a 40% tariff (notwithstanding being one of the nations the US had a trade surplus with), which was later removed on commodities like coffee and orange juice (and most recently aircraft). It is widely seen as the most likely origin to register a spike in US-bound traffic.

Executives at AIT Worldwide Logistics are not expecting a significant shift in shipper strategy nor a strong increase in volumes.

“If there is a surge, it would likely be from China to the US in seafreight. Brazil and India could surge a bit for air cargo,” a company spokesperson added.

“For air cargo, the tariff turmoil could, like for ocean freight, be reflected in some increase in US-bound volumes in the coming months. But with de minimis still suspended, we’re unlikely to see a big or sudden volume surge for air cargo either,” Mr Levine remarked.

Congestion at US gateways is not likely, and capacity should be sufficient.

“There is a substantial overcapacity in the market, so ocean transport should readily be able to handle any increase in volume. As long as the increase in volume doesn’t overlap with a period of increased blank/void sailings there should be no issues,” Mr Rosica said.

“It is worth noting that 150 days will have this ending right during peak season and that timing could cause a spike in rates. Airfreight should only see a particular rush towards the last two weeks of these 150 days,” he added.

More than the prospect of a surge in volume, operators are concerned about the ongoing uncertainty that the tariff situation has extended.

“At a time of growing geopolitical instability, including the continued military build-up in the Middle East, policy uncertainty at home only heightens risk for American importers, exporters, and the logistics providers that support them,” the US Airforwarders Association warned in a statement urging the administration to prioritise consistent, transparent trade frameworks and provide businesses with the certainty they need to operate effectively.

“Our members are already managing fluctuating volumes, pricing pressures, and complex compliance requirements, and the introduction of a sweeping tariff measure without clear guidance creates further operational disruption which will ripple across the supply chain,” it stated.