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Companies must adjust their strategies and plan ahead for Fuel EU compliance, as the recent rejection of the IMO framework could spur additional pooling.

OceanScore MD Albrecht Grell told The Loadstar the rejection of the IMO’s net-zero shipping proposal this month had made any softening or alignment of FuelEU Maritime with global regulation “unlikely”.

“The IMO net-zero framework (NZF) will not materialise, while FuelEU Maritime is here to stay,” he said.  

The EC regulation, which came into force on 1 January, sets targets for the greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of the energy used on a ship. It applies to 100% of the energy used on voyages and port calls within the EU, and 50% of voyages in and out.   

To become compliant, companies will need to either pay a FuelEU penalty or take action to bring the GHG intensity within FuelEU limits.   

And with alternative fuel availability in short supply, one way companies have become compliant is by ‘pooling’, where shipowners redistribute compliance surplus and deficit to other stakeholders. 

Mr Grell suggested that while the original net-zero plan would have effectively eliminated commercial pooling by 2028, with the framework off the table, pooling would be here to stay, and “companies have to adjust their strategies accordingly”, he urged.  

According to Oceanscore’s data, pooling today costs less than a third of the €640/tonne CO2 penalty.  

“Many managers (DOC holders) do not control which fuels are burned, but still carry compliance responsibility, so pooling gives them an alternative to paying penalties without operational control.” 

Players are able to buy compliant surpluses on industry marketplaces, and if more are bought than needed, they can be banked for future use or sold during an April pooling window. 

But Mr Grell warned that some marketplaces offered a single ‘opaque’ price for compliance surpluses, and advised buyers to seek a platform that shows multiple offers from multiple players. 

“This will ensure competition between offers and create a transparent market view with price, terms and counterparties visible side by side,” he explained.  

He added that after prices reached their lowest point of €193 per ton of CO2 equivalent in August and September, according to Oceanscore’s Pool-Price index (OPX), October figures were showing a “sharp increase”, to €207 per ton. 

“During the summer, trading activity slowed, leading to a temporary dip in prices. But as the season ended and compliance planning resumed, transaction volumes picked up,” Mr Grell explained, and predicted that pricing was expected to “grow further”.  

“Since each supplier’s surplus is finite, the best deals are absorbed quickly, leaving behind offers at higher prices. This attracts new sellers into the market and leads the market equilibrium price to rise,” he cautioned.

 

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