News / IATA to downgrade air cargo growth forecast 'to something more sustainable'

© Mikhail Lavrenov

IATA’s air cargo 2025 growth forecast for yields and volumes is set to fall, after the first three months of the year got off to a rocky start. 

IATA is two weeks away from its annual general meeting, where it will update its projection for air cargo’s growth for 2025 – its latest forecast for air cargo growth, 6%, was made in December following a strong year of double-digit growth. 

Andrew Matters, IATA director of sustainability & economics, told delegates at this week’s CNS partnership conference in Miami: “If you go back not too long ago, we were running at a double-digit growth rate which peaked at about 14%. Now, as everybody here knows, a growth rate of double digits is not sustainable.  

“We’ve talked about all that has happened since then and, unsurprisingly, what we’ve seen more recently is moderation, back to something more sustainable,” he said.  

While Mr Matters was unable to reveal the new projection, he assured that “a 6% growth forecast for 2025 will not be what you see in two weeks’ time”.  

“Given the downside risks to the outlook that have increased substantially, and the downgrades to global economic activity, I think you can appreciate the direction forecasts are going to go when we see some new numbers,” he added.  

“The same applies for cargo revenue growth, which we currently forecast at around 5.4%… Air cargo revenue is about 50% higher than pre-pandemic, and that means the structure will change.”  

Cargo yields in 2023 and 2024 stabilised, noted Mr Matters, who added: “For the first three months of this year, we’ve seen that yields are a little bit lower than in the past couple of years.” 

However, the outlook for growth and yield might not be as pessimistic as some may think: Mr Matters did add that many of the positive underlying drivers and fundamentals of air cargo in December “haven’t changed”.  

“We now have this disruption that we have to overlay on top of those forecasts, and that’s going to bring changes. But, fundamentally, we started this year as an industry in good shape, with a positive outlook, and a lot of those factors remain to this day,” he explained.  

“The important role ecommerce is playing, for example, is underpinning some of these outcomes, which we think are here to stay.”