News / Tradelanes: Sub-Saharan Africa-Far East – trends defy data

Numbers do not appear to match the coming reality of trade between East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, with the most recent Container Trade Statistics (CTS) data indicating rates and volumes (largely) all heading up – but sources on the ground suggest there is something of a decline coming.

Per CTS, which reports two months in arrears, East Asia-Sub-Saharan Africa volumes had grown at less than 21% year on year for the seven months to October, in some cases surpassing the 48% for an average of 404,800 teu per month.

General manager for South Africa at 1Up Cargo Cindy Luyt old The Loadstar: “This tradelane has been pretty consistent on both air and sea. Volumes of consumables do appear to have grown on ocean freight, and the rates have been pretty consistent for some time.”

While consistent in terms of price point for the same seven-month period, rates are showing remarkable year-on-year growth, July, August, and September rates up 31%, 37.7%, and 39%, respectively, against the same period last year.

On the reverse leg, the same cannot be said, with the strong upturn in rates experienced at the start of 2025  now heading in reverse, with July, August, and September rates having dropped 31%, 27.7, and 29%, respectively, year on year.

The volume picture looks a little better, starting the year with five consecutive months of year-on-year declines – double-digit in February (-19%) and March (-12.4%). Sub-Saharan-East Asia volumes have grown in three of the past four months compared with 2024’s performance.

Even so, the most recent month on CTS charts, September, only witnessed a 3.4% bounce, to 114,300 teu, and the indication from sources The Loadstar has spoken with is that there has been a recent trend of container volumes decreasing.

One source noted that, while slightly up year on year, October box volumes had dropped 32% month on month, adding that “rates have been pretty stable – there has not been much of a peak season, so minor GRIs and peak present, but insignificant, really”.

Ms Luyt added: “With regard to ocean exports on this trade, there have been severe equipment shortages noted on all shipping lines. And on the air side, there’s been rumblings of airlines possibly increasing available cargo flights, but to date nothing has officially been confirmed.”