News / Europe-Africa seeing flat volumes and rate pressure

Enquiries have witnessed a noticeable drop-off on Europe-Africa trades, following an end-of-year spike that caught some by surprise, with increasing evidence that the historically strong routes on this trade may be weakening.

According to Container Trade Statistics (CTS) data for November (its most recent on record), Europe-bound volumes from Sub-Saharan Africa were up 8.6% year on year, continuing a strong run in which volumes climbed in all but one of the preceding 10 months.

Sources told The Loadstar this strong growth could be attributed to marked improvements in manufacturing activity and exports away from Africa’s historic centres of power, with West Africa having had a particularly prosperous 2025.

November’s 8.6% upturn involved 73,200 teu, leaving volumes for the first 11 months of last year up 1.7% year on year, at 988,800 teu, with average monthly handling of 89,900 teu; and while October failed to see growth, volumes remained flat.

If that growth was driven by developments along the continent’s west coast, South African Association of Freight Forwarders’ head of research and development, Jacob van Rensburg, told The Loadstar performance along the southern coast was less buoyant.

Customs data does not mirror a major SSA-wide surge, with South Africa’s EU-bound maritime exports rising 3% in November, while European imports fell sharply, suggesting the rebound was driven primarily by other African gateways,” said Mr van Rensburg.

“That points to a largely seasonal pre-Christmas restocking effect, reinforced by some of the equipment repositioning seen, and modest capacity discipline, which temporarily arrested the rate slide rather than signalling a structural recovery.”

And while volumes may have been up, this did not lead to much of an improvement on the pricing front, at least as far as carriers were concerned, although after three months of decline, that they recorded a flat year-on-year performance likely offered welcome reprieve.

Europe-Sub-Saharan Africa rates were also flat, year on year – even as the route recorded an even more impressive volume uptick: 11.5% year on year, hitting 197,600 teu, bringing the year-to-date total to more than 2m teu, for a monthly average of 182,300 teu.

Cindy Luyt, general manager of South Africa for 1Up Cargo, told The Loadstar: “We did notice slight increases in this trade in the last quarter, attributing this to year-end/Christmas spikes in cargo movement.”

As we await CTS data, which runs two months in arrears, it remains to be seen if SSA-Europe volumes could finish the year without recording a dip, but the Europe-SSA leg saw a more mixed performance, with three months of downturns.

One month into 2026 and there appears a little less optimism on the Europe-Africa trade, with forwarders The Loadstar spoke with all pointing to enquiries in both directions on the route “at lower levels”.

Mr van Rensburg said: “Fundamentals remain soft, which include high vessel supply, post-holiday demand normalisation, and Cape routings, pointing to flat volumes and continued rate pressure unless carriers intensify blank sailings.”

For anyone hoping to see a dip in carrier costs, those using West African and Mediterranean gateways may wish to think again, with CMA CGM having this week pointing to the dire weather situation as it announced a new surcharge.

Its Emergency Operational Recovery surcharge entails a $300 fee per container on services from North Europe, East and West Mediterranean, Black Sea, and North Africa (including Morocco) to West African gateways.