Low-cost car exports driving market share growth for China

Chinese car exports have beaten challenges from tariffs imposed by the US and EU and are set to hit 6m units this year, a new record, beating more than 5m overseas sales in 2024.

Clarksons Research shows Chinese carmakers have increased sales in the Middle East, and to circumvent EU tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs), they have pivoted towards hybrid models not subject to these tariffs.

Clarksons analyst Yan Zhang said: “Broadly, China’s car export surge in 2025 reflects continued growth in market share in a number of key markets – cars to the Middle East, for example, have surged by 50% year on year so far this year, to 800,000 units, as Chinese brands like BYD continue to expand their footprint in the region.”

In Africa, Chinese car exports rose 141% year on year, to 300,000, supported by their low prices, gaining market share, using South Africa as a stepping stone in a continent-wide strategy.

Nearly half of the 14 Chinese automotive brands active in South Africa launched only last year, and more, including Dayun and Changan, are set to enter Africa soon.

In Europe, the new hybrid Chinese models have had broader appeal than the pure EVs rolled out in recent years, helping Chinese exports to the EU and UK record 33% year-on-year growth across the first nine months of the year, to over 900,000 cars.

However, the road ahead may not be so rosy, warned Ms Zhang.

“The outlook for Chinese car exports remains complex, with risks and uncertainties to track. Trade protectionism is rising, with Russia (a key market which has now fallen back) and Mexico recently moving to protect domestic manufacturers from competitively priced Chinese imports, in addition to high-profile moves by the US and EU in recent years.

“China is also tightening export licences from start-2026 to clamp down on “zero-mile” used car exports which have been a notable trend in recent years amid oversupply in China’s domestic car market.

“As a result, Chinese automakers are increasing overseas manufacturing capacity, with reports suggesting an additional 600,000 units to come online in 2026.”