Comment / Hormuz shock: How long before trade flows break, not bend?

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For now, most commentary around the Iran war remains stuck in familiar territory: escalation ladders, diplomatic signalling, military intent. Important, no doubt — but largely irrelevant to the people actually moving cargo.

In the real economy, the question is far less theoretical and far more uncomfortable.

Not what is happening. Not even how severe it might become.

But how long it lasts.

Because in logistics, duration is everything. Short shocks get absorbed, priced in, and eventually forgotten. Prolonged disruption ...