Election fever and port labour tension keep supply chain players on edge, says Seko Logistics

Air, ocean, and trucking markets are set for a bumpy three months, with a US presidential election and the outcome of east coast labour negotiations to set their short-term future.

Speaking to The Loadstar, Seko’s global chief commercial officer, Brian Bourke, said the near-term supply chain market would be dictated by three “milestones”: contract negotiations; that election; and, importantly, getting the results.

“Learning the result of the election could take weeks; we’d expect to know by the Saturday on the presidency, and maybe the Senate outcome will be quicker,” said Mr Bourke.

“But the outcome of the congressional elections could prove particularly long. And this is happening in an environment in which we have seen more than half the world cast votes this year and a general increase in protectionist measures, even with new tariffs under Biden.”

Given the margin of error between both nominees for the presidency, companies have been forced into assessing how each administration would act in terms of tariffs.

Mr Bourke said different companies had very different projections, but noted that with lead times on different commodity types varying, he would expect to see, “in the next week or two”, some businesses making what he called “a few safety purchase orders”.

“As for the others, once they feel certain that whoever takes the White House intends to up the number of tariffs, you’ll see inventory orders being pulled forward,” he said. “Then, of course, just days before the inauguration, you have the extended deadline of the new east coast port agreement, and some of our customers are already pulling orders ahead, because they are worried about the outcome on that front too.”

Asked for his own thoughts on the port labour negotiation, Mr Bourke expressed quiet optimism that a deal could be realised.

He added: “We were very much encouraged by the news that the parties had decided to return to talks. Over the next three months, the outcome of each of the flashpoints could result in very different scenarios.

“There is one where we glide into a more typical slack period. Until then, the most important thing is for companies to prep for each possible outcome.”