News / COP28: A global 'fossil fuel phase out' is watered down to 'well, it could happen'

Photo: © Mohamed Ahmed Soliman | Dreamstime.com

Delegates at COP28 have finally agreed that the world “could transition away” from fossil fuels.

In scenes alarmingly reminiscent of the outcome of the IMO’s MEPC80, the terminology of “a fossil fuel phase out”, and the less objectionable “phase down”, were replaced with “transitioning away”,  and nations “could” take action on greenhouse gas emissions by “reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels” by 2050.

BBC correspondent Sameer Hashmi suggested even this watered-down language was still the product of a diplomatic compromise by the Saudi government, which “didn’t want to be seen as the main reason for the talks to collapse, leading to the declaration falling apart”, he said.

Exasperated UN secretary general António Guterres said: “To those who opposed a clear reference to a phase out of fossil fuels in the COP28 text, I want to say that a fossil fuel phase out is inevitable, whether they like it or not. [The Paris 1.5°C target] will be impossible without the phase out of all fossil fuels.

“Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late.”

This morning, UK climate secretary Graham Stuart, who left COP28 before negotiations were concluded for the vote on the Rwanda policy, illustrated how open to interpretation the agreed language of the COP28 draft might be.

He said “transitioning away” could mean granting new oil and gas exploration licences in the North Sea, which would “simply allow us to manage declining oil yields”, and make the projects “more green”.

Apparently taking as read that the UK could, and would, do nothing to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, Mr Stuart added: “Stopping fossil fuel extraction in the North Sea would cause the UK to …simply import more from abroad, with higher embedded emissions than producing at home.”

Amy Buhl, WeatherNews’s general manager Europe and Americas, told The Loadstar: “Broadly speaking, the challenges we have been seeing are more frequent, more extreme weather events. Weather is generated due to temperature differentials across the earth. However… as temperatures rise, some areas are more affected than others… creating the opportunity for more explosive and unexpected types of weather events.

“One phenomenon we have seen more and more recently on the marine side is rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. This means tropical systems that rapidly increase in wind speed over short intervals of time. The most recent example was Hurricane Otis, which devastated Acapulco in Mexico, the wind speed increased 115 mph in 24 hours.

“We also see more ‘bombing lows’ – a similar dynamic for a mid-latitude system, where the low pressure rapidly deepens over a short period. Storm Ciaran that affected the UK and Northern Europe in early November is an example.”

The Alliance of Small Island States – whose constituent nations are proportionately far more exposed to these calamitous weather events, and some of which could be underwater before the end of the century, said: “[The COP28 agreement] is incremental and not transformational. We see a litany of loopholes in this text that are a major concern to us.”

And the minister of natural resources for alliance member the Marshall Islands, John Silk, added yesterday: “What we have seen today is totally unacceptable. We will not go silently to our watery graves.”