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So IATA’s August figures are here, and while they note that the market remains strong for air cargo, IATA also warns it could soon all end. August saw global FTKs rise year-on-year 12.1%, and up from 10.9% in July. In seasonally adjusted terms, the FTK pick-up in August “strongly increased”. In fact, it was the largest rise since January. But, as ever, IATA likes to err on the side of pessimism. “While the upward seasonally adjusted FTK trend remains robust, the industry drivers that we track suggest that the upturn in FTK growth maybe nearing a peak,” it warned, in the same words as it did last month. Although it notes that the “new export orders component of the global PMI recently reached its highest level since March 2011”, it warns “we will need to see even further rises in the measure to avoid a moderation in FTK growth from its current levels going into 2018″. And it adds: “Moreover, the fact that the inventory-to-sales ratio in the US stopped falling earlier this year is also consistent with the current period of strong year-on-year FTK growth starting to moderate over the second half of 2017 and into 2018.”

So, 2018 may not be as good. But anecdotal signs from the industry suggest there could be a busy peak on its way – airlines will no doubt be hoping that IATA’s warning for the second half is premature, or better still, inaccurate.

You can see all the data here.


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