News / Latin American forwarders shrug-off Trump tariffs, but are wary of rising costs

South America’s supply chains are undergoing something of a major shake-up amid the impacts of the Trump tariff regime, a deal with the EU, and efforts closer to home to reorient how the continent engages with international trade.

Taking effect in May, the EU-South America trade deal, better known as the Mercosur agreement, is expected to inject nearly half-a-trillion dollars of investment into South America and reduce costs for consumers on both sides of the deal.

But it stands out as something of an outlier for a region that has been battered by the White House, Brazil now under particular pressure following yesterday’s implementation of a wide-ranging 25% tariff rate for trade with the US.

Nonetheless, forwarders that spoke to The Loadstar indicated that, by and large, they believe the continent has done sufficient work to protect itself from the worst impacts of US policy, their concerns instead focused on capacity constraints.

One forwarder told The Loadstar that, while the “overall picture” for the region was one of stability, “transit times are becoming less predictable as stronger cargo volumes meet tighter ocean capacity and uneven inland infrastructure”.

AGL Cargo’s Jackson Campos singled out Brazil as emblematic of the double-sided face of the supply chain picture, pointing out that Santos – which is expecting a hotly contested bid for its Tecon 10 terminal – has continued to report solid growth in cargo and container volumes.

“And yet, a recent two-day trucker mobilisation around the port, despite ending without developing into a wider shutdown, highlighted the dependence of Brazilian logistics on haulage costs and regulation,” Mr Campos told The Loadstar.

For many, failure to address the issues that have led to trucker protests provoked fears of the repeat of the chaos seen in 2018, when trucks stopped moving for 10 days as drivers, backed by hauliers, demanded cuts to the price of diesel.

Nor was the recent spat the first this year, as drivers around the country mobilised – again in response to a dramatic increase in the price of diesel after the onset of the US/Israeli war on Iran – threatening agriculture, food, and goods and services.

While that instance resulted in the government “dropping taxes on diesel and upping the utilisation of the country’s refineries”, while sensitive to truckers’ needs, forwarders believe structural changes are needed to ensure there are alternative transport options available.

Outside Brazil, the wider region is also experiencing pressures on the Asia–East Coast South America trade, where blanked sailings, equipment shortages, and strong demand have tightened space and increased freight rates.

“Inland logistics are more uneven,” says Mr Campos. “The northern grain corridor faced long truck queues and delays during the soybean export season, exposing limitations in road access, terminal capacity, and river transport.”

But the picture is not uniform, one forwarder noting that Argentina and Uruguay were both experiencing something of a boom, recording stronger container activity – in part a result of the Argentinian government’s controversial “bonfire of regulations”.

Under President Milie, Argentina has slashed import tariff rates on more than 1,000 product types, while also increasing the freight-on-board value limit to $3,000, three times the previous limit.

The president also upped the amount individuals could import duty-free every year to $400, all of which prompted a 55% uptick in consumer goods imports, taking them to a record-breaking $11.4bn in value.

One Portuguese forwarder said: “Argentina is an area where we are seeing volumes and interest from potential customers increase. It seems like the country is making things easier for businesses to operate, and that is certainly helping us develop links there.”

For the wider market, Mr Campos said that, despite the difficulties, forwarders were looking to get ahead, and it was clear that “cargo is moving, but earlier bookings, better forecasting, and additional lead-time buffers are increasingly important”.

He added: “Overall, the key risk is not that cargo cannot move, but that freight costs, vessel space, and end-to-end transit times are becoming more volatile.”