News / South-east Asia the star exporter replacing ecommerce in air cargo

Photo: © Makidotvn

General cargo imports have emerged as the main driver of air freight demand on the transpacific, replacing the ecommerce boom that had dominated the market for three years, according to new analysis from Trade and Transport Group (TTG). 

Frederic Horst, MD of TTG, said the market had undergone a significant shift. 

“For the past year, general air cargo imports have filled the gap created by the end of the US de minimis exemption,” he said. “Up to early 2025 it was the main driver. That has changed.”

Asian air exports to the US increased 21.5% last year, with growth accelerating further during the first months of this year, according to TTG data. 

Mr Horst noted that the trend was reflected in the divergence between air traffic data – covering all cargo flown – and air trade data, which tracks import consignments valued at more than $2,000, and therefore excludes most cross-border ecommerce. 

The figures mirror Chinese trade statistics, which show a sharp decline in low-value exports to the US. According to TTG, Chinese low-value trade to the US fell 28% in 2025, and was down 33% through April. 

The changing relationship between air traffic and air trade provides further evidence of the shift. In 2015, air trade accounted for around 80% of total air traffic weight, most of the remainder consisting of express parcels. By 2024, that share had fallen to roughly 53%, reflecting the surge in ecommerce volumes. However, the gap has narrowed again, with air trade accounting for 72% of air traffic weight by March 2026. 

The trend was also highlighted by WorldACD chief executive Ken de Witt Hamer during TIACA’s Executive Summit earlier this month.

Data covering the first four months of 2026 showed “some significant changes” in outbound ecommerce flows, he said. 

While China, North-east and South-east Asia were among the top regions driving tonnage growth last year, “we’ve actually seen a really important reversal of roles here”. 

“Most growth is actually coming out of South-east Asia, the new number one, and China moved to the third spot,” Mr de Witt Hamer said. 

He added that the US and North America had dropped out of the top five origin sub-regions for growth, replaced by South America and South Asia. 

According to WorldACD, the fastest-growing tradelane this year has been South-east Asia-US, followed by North-east Asia-South-east Asia and China-South-east Asia, underscoring the continuing diversification of global air cargo flows away from China-centric ecommerce traffic.