News / Hormuz stalemate could reshape container trade flows, warns analyst

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz risks evolving into a structural shift for global container shipping, according to analysts at Upply, who outlined scenarios that could reshape trade flows and supply chains. 

During a recent webinar, Upply said the industry was moving beyond the immediate operational crisis into a period where longer-term consequences must be considered. 

In the most optimistic scenario, a ceasefire or de-escalation could allow a gradual return to normality, including the release of hundreds of vessels stranded in the Gulf and the restoration of key supply chains. 

Jérôme de Ricqlès, liner shipping expert at Upply, said this would likely have a “cool down effect” on energy prices and help stabilise container markets, particularly for temperature-controlled cargo, which has been among the hardest hit. 

However, he cautioned that even in this scenario, recovery would not be immediate, given a backlog of around 800 vessels and widespread disruption to schedules and equipment positioning. 

A more prolonged crisis would have deeper consequences. Continued restrictions in Hormuz, combined with rerouting via alternative corridors, would sustain elevated costs and bring more delays, reinforcing inflationary pressure on global supply chains. 

“The domino effect is there, clearly,” said Mr de Ricqlès, pointing to the cumulative impact of fuel surcharges, insurance premiums, and congestion. These additional costs, he added, were increasingly being passed on to shippers, even as headline freight rates remained relatively stable. 

The most significant concern, however, he said lay in a third scenario: lasting disruption that reshapes the structure of container shipping itself. 

Here, Upply suggested, the crisis could accelerate shifts already under way, including the diversification of transhipment hubs from the Gulf and increased reliance on alternative routes linking Asia and Europe.

The near-closure of major global hub Jebel Ali has already forced carriers to redeploy capacity to ports in the Red Sea, India, and East Africa. 

“East Africa, South Africa, and some parts of India are deeply concerned with what is happening. And creating, of course, extra burden, extra delay, waiting times, congestion – and when there is congestion, there are congestion charges.  

“But particularly as the business activity and demand between Asia and Europe is quite strong,” explained the analyst.  

At the same time, geopolitical dynamics could play a decisive role, suggested Upply.

The US-led counter-blockade of Hormuz and tensions involving Iran risked drawing-in major Asian economies, particularly China and India, which are heavily dependent on Gulf energy flows. 

“It is pushing China, India, and other Asian countries, mostly related to the BRICS, to also enter the game from an official point of view,” Upply said, adding that energy security concerns in Asia were becoming increasingly acute. 

Such developments could lead to a more fragmented and politicised shipping landscape, with trade routes shaped as much by strategic considerations as by commercial efficiency. 

Crucially, Upply warned, time was becoming a critical factor as shortages are beginning to emerge. 

“Things are getting urgent,” said Mr de Ricqlès. “Now… destinations all over the world… can feel the lack of cargo,” he urged.