News / Airfreight rates get a lift, but no one expects a peak season boost now

© Chaiwat Rattanang

Aluminium and AI servers are contributing to a rise in global airfreight rates – but forwarders don’t expect this to result in a peak season after all. 

The TAC Index, which this week launched daily spot air freight indices, including new routes from Hong Kong, India and Korea, noted that its Air Freight Index gained 3.3% in the week to 27 October – but was down 3% year on year. 

“This second successive strong weekly gain is starting to look like the beginnings of a typical peak season rise, which usually gathers pace into the US ahead of Thanksgiving and into Europe in the run-up to Christmas,” it noted.

“That said, some sources cautioned other factors may also be at play, including less capacity on certain lanes – notably the transpacific – plus front-loading of goods ahead of potential changes to tariffs and trade rules, however less likely big changes now seem.” 

Forwarders, however, claim this is simply a mild upturn, pointing to the lack of peak season surcharges, which would normally have begun to be implemented by airlines by now. 

“Rates have been going up slightly,” said one Europe-based forwarder. “It’s always a question of how much BSAs do you hold, and what is the market in general doing? It has been going up a little bit from Asia to Europe and US, but it’s not crazy.  

“And after Golden Week there were obviously typical movements, but it’s not trending towards a peak season. We see rates are going up, but it is not that crazy. We don’t believe rates will go to the HK$50 mark (US$6.44). But hey, there’s still a lot of uncertainties and people don’t have a clue. 

“But there are no peak season surcharges in the market at all.” 

He added that any rises might be non-organic, adding: “Some people are trying to push up rates because they didn’t make money throughout the entire year – but it’s not necessarily the customer who feels it, because there’s still enough capacity in the market.” 

One new demand driver, according to a couple of forwarders, is aluminium, despite the new 50% US tariffs.

Last month, a fire at a mill facility in New York, which supplies about 40% of the US sheet aluminium, led to scarce supplies, expected to last until the end of the year, or early next year. 

The forwarder said: “There’s a big project in Europe to the US with aluminum coils, because there was a fire in one factory.”

Dimerco also noted a “sharp rebound in transpacific air demand”, leading to a “year-end surge driven by aluminum and hi-tech exports; front-loading continues despite mild tariff relief”. 

Rates are showing little in the way of drama. In the past fortnight, FAX rates from Europe to North America have gone up 17%, to $1.98, according to Freightos Terminal , but have stayed broadly flat on the return journey, at about $1.04. South-east Asia to North America peaked at the start of October, at $5.70, but dropped soon after and has been bumpily rising again, and stands at $5.14 now.

On a similar lane, Greater China to North America has gone up from its year-low of $4.05 at the start of October, to $5.95 now, a 47% rise. But that lane this year has been characterised by peaks and troughs. On the reverse leg, rates have dropped in the past week, from $1.53 to $1.38. 

South-east Asia to Europe is trending upwards, now at $3.78, while Greater China to Europe peaked on 3 October at $4.51, but has fallen back to $4.11 now. 

The European forwarder added: “There is no option to do a peak season surcharge this time around; there’s not lots of volumes coming in.” 

He concluded, sadly: “I really can’t judge the market nowadays. Especially not for quarter four.”