News / Air cargo demand up in H1: can carriers sustain this and balance capacity?

© Evgenii Naumov

This article is compiled from IATA’s monthly international air cargo analyses, January to June

Global international air cargo demand expanded by 3.4% year on year in the first half of 2025, according to IATA’s monthly market analyses. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-km (ACTK), rose even faster, up 4.5% compared with the same period in 2024. This imbalance between supply and demand kept pressure on cargo load factors, even as demand remained in positive territory. 

Demand outpaces, but growth moderates 

The headline numbers underscore a market that is still expanding, but at a slowing pace. International cargo tonne-km (CTK) grew every month between January and June, though momentum weakened in the later months. The strongest demand increase came in April (+6.5%), boosted by tariff-driven front-loading and seasonal consumer flows. By June, growth had cooled to +1.6%, reflecting trade disruptions and a less supportive macroeconomic environment. 

Capacity consistently outstripped demand in the early months. In January, international ACTK rose 7.3% against demand growth of 3.6%, while in April, ACTK growth of 6.9% slightly outpaced CTKs. Only in May did demand outpace capacity, with CTK up 3.0% versus ACTK at +2.6%. 

Month-by-month: 

• January 2025: International demand +3.6%; capacity +7.3% – load factors weakened as supply growth outpaced demand; 

• February: Growth slowed sharply, with CTK up just +0.4% and ACTK+1.1% – the softest month of the half year;

• March: Recovery emerged as CTK rose +5.5% and ACTK +6.1%, supported by Asia-Pacific flows and e-commerce; 

• April: Peak of the cycle, with CTK +6.5% and ACTK +6.9% – front-loading US imports ahead of tariffs boosted flows; 

• May: Moderation set in, with CTK +3.0% and ACTK +2.6%, showing demand held relatively firm even as earlier front-loading unwound; 

• June: Growth slowed further, to CTK +1.6%, ACTKs +2.8%, which underlined the fragile state of trade and renewed pressure on load factors. 

Regional dynamics: 

• Asia-Pacific carriers drove the bulk of the growth, consistently outperforming the global average, thanks to cross-border e-commerce and strong flows to Europe and North America. 

• North American airlines saw demand strengthen in March–April, linked to US import demand ahead of tariff changes. 

• European carriers posted modest gains, supported by Asia-Europe routes, but constrained by weaker intra-Europe traffic. 

• Latin America delivered strong seasonal results in April and May, particularly perishables into North America. 

• Middle Eastern carriers faced volatility, with rerouting around the Red Sea raising costs and shifting trade flows. 

• Africa remained a small but positive contributor, reliant on Europe-Africa corridors. 

Outlook 

With first-half international CTK up 3.4% and capacity up 4.5%, the air cargo industry has maintained growth despite a challenging trade backdrop. However, the slowdown in May and June points to a more uncertain second half. Geopolitical risks, tariff policies, and shifting shipping routes will continue to shape demand patterns. 

Airlines now face the twin challenge of sustaining growth while navigating capacity deployment carefully to support yields. The first half of 2025 confirms that while air cargo remains resilient, competitive pressures will intensify.