The Loadstar Leader: Iran conflict tests airfreight flexibility to the max

Everything changes on a dime when it comes to the present chaos in the Middle East. For the container lines, the de facto closure of Suez is now baked into their way of operation. Brief flirtations and niche carrier services notwithstanding, lines have been reluctant to return, even with assurances from the Houthis that they would no longer target non-Israeli linked ships.

But now, with tensions having stepped up – or perhaps by the time you start this, having cooled only to have flared again by the time you finish reading this – airlines have been dragged into the chaos. Last night, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE all imposed temporary suspensions on their airspace as Iran launched a wave of missile strikes against a US base close to Doha.

This morning, airspace was well and truly open once more and aircraft were flying. Donald Trump proclaimed a ceasefire and an end to what he terms the “12 Day War”.

Barely two hours passed before Israel claimed Iran breached the truce and promised a forceful response, likely leading to a counter response from the Iranians prompting Mr Trump to proclaim: “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they are doing.”

With all due respect, perhaps the US president does not possess the ideal temperament to pacify the situation. In any case, it says something about the sheer weirdness of the present situation, when ships continue to call while airlines are assessing their services almost on a minute-by-minute basis.

The key benefits of airfreight over ocean freight are its flexibility and speed. It can temporarily fill the gaps in the supply of critical goods when ships have to vacate a region, but currently it is the airlines scrambling to avoid certain airspaces while ships continue to transit Hormuz.

Clearly, container lines continue to assess the situation and will have contingency plans should the waterway become too dangerous. But at that point shippers will look to airfreight alternatives, but with the changes in the situation in the Middle East measurable not in weeks or days but in hours, is even this most flexible form of transport capable of reacting at a speed necessary to adapt?