News / Shippers wanting a return to Suez should be careful what they wish for

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The Israel-Iran war may have effectively quashed hopes that the Suez Canal may soon be a viable routing for commercial ships – but that may be a good thing for European shippers gearing up for the peak season.

Speaking at this week’s TOC Europe 2025 in Rotterdam, seasoned supply chain executive Bjorn Vang Jense, EVP of ocean freight at Chinese forwarder Easy Speed Logistics, told shippers to be careful what they wish for, in terms of Suez.

“For those shippers and carriers that hope that the Red Sea crisis comes to an end, and the Suez Canal reopens for them, I have to warn that when it happens it is likely to precipitate three months of utter chaos in North European and Mediterranean container supply chains, with a dramatic spillover effect in Asia.

“At some point the decision will be made that it is safe for vessels to transit the canal again, and it is very likely to be a decision that carriers make at the same time. A message will go out from headquarters to carriers’ fleets that Asia-Europe ships can turn right when they reach Africa rather than turning left as they currently do, heading towards the Cape of Good Hope.”

But that’s where the problems will begin, Mr Vang Jensen explained: “As soon as that memo goes through and the first vessel turns right instead of left, it and those following, will arrive in Europe before earlier vessels in the same string which will still be making their way round Africa.

“Any supply chain or factories in Europe that reply on sequenced deliveries will evidently face huge problems with the arrival of their goods, and that will, firstly, lead to massive congestion in European ports.

“And, as things stand, there will not be enough trucking to clear the ports; and neither is there enough warehousing to reconsolidate cargo that has arrived at the wrong time, and that will mean empty containers will not be returned to Asia.

“The Covid experience taught us that when empty containers stop being returned, it causes massive equipment shortages across Asia within three weeks, leading to months of supply chain congestion.

“So the way Suez reopens is very important – we want it to be gradually reopened,” Mr Vang Jensen said.

Meanwhile, with the Israel-Iran conflict continuing, the prospect of the Iran-affiliated Houthi rebels releasing their grip on the Al Mandab Straits is diminishing, and analysts at liner database eeSea this week noted that even French carrier CMA CGM, which has been at the forefront of initial efforts to resume transits, particularly on some of its Asia-Europe backhaul and selected Europe-Middle East services, has begun to step back, will redesign and rename its Europe-Middle East LMX service from early July, and cease calling at the Persian/Middle East Gulf ports.

“We were able to confirm that CMA’s LMX service has been renamed and rerouted,” said eeSea head of forecasting Destine Ozyugur. “The Europe-Middle East service that has been operating in the Persian Gulf since September 2024 is dropping calls to Jebel Ali, Abu Dhabi, and Jubail, and making an additional call to Ambarli.

“The service is now advertised under the name LRX (Levant Red Sea Express) and will see a reduction of three slots and a total round-trip time down from 42 to 21 days,” she added.

Deploying three ships with an average capacity of 2,500 teu, the LRX will have a port rotation of Jeddah-Suez-Ambarli-Mersin-Iskenderun-Beirut-Port Said.