High fuel prices making outlook for logistics demand uncertain
The prospect of fuel prices remaining high for some time is making the demand outlook for ...
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Airlines offering older aircraft, or inefficient routes, could find their capacity rejected by Geodis and its customers, following the introduction of a new fuel-saving tool.
Geodis is also trying to help its customers shift modes from air to sea.
The company has a strict – and early – pledge to cut aviation emissions by 25%, using 2022 as the base, by 2030 – but it believes sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is not the first answer.
“Sustainability has a cost. And this cost, especially when we are talking about SAF, is hardly bearable for our customers. So we had to find a way, and I think a good compromise is to look for efficiency,” said Henri Le Gouis, EVP, global freight forwarding, talking to The Loadstar.
Its AirSmart platform helps customers select aircraft and optimise routing, using external flight data and advanced analytic tools. Geodis claims it is a “unique key differentiator in a freight forwarding industry increasingly focused on carbon-conscious performance”.
“It’s a very nice concept, because we are all committed to improve sustainability with flight management,” added Mr Le Gouis.
“If you look at the worldwide fleet of aircraft, there’s a wide difference in fuel consumption between the different generations. So the idea behind AirSmart is that we have developed internally an algorithm which gives you the opportunity to identify the most efficient aircraft on the market for each lane.
“We have 70 lanes covered, which is quite an achievement, so that means you can reduce your consumption up to 30% just by using the most efficient aircraft.”
So which carriers could benefit? Middle East carriers tend to have younger, more fuel-efficient fleets – but fly fewer direct routes. Qatar Airways’ average aircraft age is 9.7 years, Emirates’ 10.9, Etihad’s 8.9. China Eastern’s average fleet age is 9.3, China Southern’s is 9.2, Cathay Pacific’s 11.6.
Meanwhile AF-KLM’s average fleet age is 12.2 years, while Lufthansa’s is 14.6 years.
So, would an indirect route on a younger aircraft be better? Or direct on an older aircraft?
“We try as much as possible to encourage and develop direct routing for our flights,” said Mr Le Gouis. “Of course, sometimes you have to use gateways, and of course now in the Middle East you have emerging gateways. But when it comes to AirSmart, it’s really comparing apples with apples, and that means comparing direct routes with direct routes”.
It is likely to mean that some of the older freighter airlines could lose business.
“When you have the choice, especially when you come to the most recent aircraft, you gain a major reduction in fuel consumption. But it doesn’t mean that all customers will want to use this service.”
Mr Le Gouis said some of the best gains would be found following geopolitical changes.
“There could be some leverage in the future, if the war with Ukraine stopped, for instance we save two hours on a flight to Asia. That would be major progress.”
He added that airlines were struggling due to delivery problems: Lufthansa last week, for example, said it would suspend services to Kazakhstan this winter because of fleet shortages.
Mr Le Gouis explained: “The big aircraft manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus, are struggling to deliver new planes. We have to live with it, unfortunately, and we have to take the opportunity to try to be as efficient as we can.”
Geodis also has a target to cut 25% GHG emissions from container shipping, road, and rail, and hopes to introduce a similar tool for ocean freight.
“In sea freight we are doing it, but it’s more complex; in the same service we can have a different type of vessel using a different type of energy, but the idea is still to secure the performance in terms of CO2 consumption. So allocating it by voyage is much more complex than for aircraft.
“But we are investigating it with the shipping lines. They are also trying to do some improvements. Yesterday, a big CEO from a major shipping line was telling me that the latest generation of vessels would save up to 40% of fuel consumption.
“So, once again, I think efficiency is the major source of improvement when it comes to fuel consumption.”
He did not reveal whether he thinks Geodis would meet its targets, but said: “You know, if you’re not ambitious, you never reach your target.
“It’s our role to give guidance; to put it on the top of our priorities and really to try to permanently restructure our organisation in order to reach this target. Everything that can help in the future to reduce our fuel consumption, especially when it comes to flights, we’ll try to investigate and explore it.”
At the end of last year, Geodis looked at ways to promote modal shift from air to sea to help customers cut emissions.
It told customers: “Businesses often rely heavily on air freight due to long-standing practices driven by historical trends and established operational norms.
“The approach is understandable, as timely delivery is crucial for customer loyalty and market competitiveness. However, high reliance on air freight often stems from improper planning and a limited understanding of the long-term impacts.”
Florence Gautrais, Geodis’s global ocean freight director, added: “We often encounter subjective discussions; people might say, ‘I think we need to fly these parts in’, without realising that there might already be a shipment on its way by sea.
“This lack of visibility makes air freight seem the only viable option.”
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