ZH: June payrolls preview: only a huge miss will derail the Fed plan to hike in July

ZERO HEDGE reports:

Ahead of tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report, labor market proxies have been mixed in June: as Newsquawk notes, initial jobless claims spiked in the comparable survey week, with the four-week moving average higher heading into the June data; within S&P Global’s flash PMI data, the employment sub-indices eased, though remain above the 50-mark, which separates expansion and contraction; the ISM manufacturing data saw employment fall into contraction, but the services gauge saw the employment index rise into expansion; ADP’s gauge of payrolls growth spiked higher in the month, while Challenger Layoff numbers tumbled lower. Currently, markets are expecting the Fed to lift rates in July, and only a very significant miss along with weakness in other metrics will derail that plan; meanwhile some of the strong data released this week has seen expectations of the Fed terminal rate rise, to 5.45% in November 2023…

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