News / Predictability is key now as forwarders select carrier partners

© Lasse Behnke

Carrier behaviour in moments of crisis has become the determining factor in forwarder decision-making in the chaotic, post-pandemic reality, with warnings of ocean freight’s “stabilising function” coming under threat.

Amid the back-to-back upheavals that have followed Covid, including conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and the return of Donald Trump to the White House and tariff wars, forwarders’ trust in their carrier partners has been “massively eroded”.

“That erosion in trust has left forwarders questioning the reliability of the quotes and agreements they have with their carriers when things go awry,” one forwarder told The Loadstar, noting the increasing use of surcharges or contractual breaches.

Lacking trust in carriers’ quoted prices has left many forwarders shifting from considerations of cost when determining which carrier to route their volumes through, instead turning to their historical precedents in moments of disruption.

EAS International MD Adam Komorowski believes a key change of the 2020s has been forwarders’ shift in focus from pricing to carrier behaviour in moments of crisis. He told The Loadstar: “More and more the key question becomes how does this carrier behave when something goes wrong? Because something will go wrong. It is only a matter of time.

“As such, forwarders will naturally route volume towards partners that treat them as partners. This is not about sympathy. It is about predictability, and it is about availability and responsibility.”

Against this backdrop of distrust, forwarders and shippers have altered their attitude towards long-term contracts, adopting a segmented approach on trades to which they are more exposed, while willing to chance short-term deals or the spot market.

For Mr Komorowski, the breakdown in trust – which he argues is partly being driven by carrier determination to automate as much as possible and remove the human element – is also creating a risk for the wider global supply chain.

“I see a risk that ocean freight relationships become so weak that they stop functioning as a stabilising mechanism for the market, which is dangerous, because ocean freight is the backbone of global trade,” he continued.

“When relationships are missing, conflicts increase, disputes increase, frustration increases. And in the end, the customer suffers and the whole supply chain quality drops.”

But what is needed to be done to address these concerns? Mr Komorowski reiterated his call that ocean freight carriers – he believes air freight is less exposed to this issue – need to reconsider their desire to automate humans out of their operations.