News / Hopes rise, but analysts warn a US trucking rebound could be 'years' away

© Iryna Kushnarova

Notwithstanding noises about a recovery around the corner, the outlook for the US trucking sector remains gloomy. Rates look set to be held back by tepid demand and wiped out by stronger increases in costs.

Over the past two years people involved in or watching the trucking industry have predicted the end of the downturn and imminent recovery. The Transportation Intermediaries Association is one of the latest voices in this camp with its ‘3PL Market Report-Q2 2025 Market Insights’ published last week.

Based on data from more than 50 member companies with a heavy focus on freight brokerage activity that is largely dominated by the truckload segment, the report indicates a sequential increase of 10.7% in shipments during the quarter to 1.74m, up 7.8% year on year. Revenue rose 5.4% from Q1 to end up 5.2% higher year on year.

The authors came within a whisker of declaring outright victory.

“Although too early to definitively prove, Q2 2025 data offer indications that the transportation and freight brokerage industries have reached a turning point and are in the process of establishing volume, pricing, and margin trends that will be far more positive than those of the last two years,” they concluded.

Presumably a lot of small and mid-sized companies in this space cheered the report’s findings. A survey of SMBs published by Truckstop and Bloomberg Intelligence in August found that 85% of carriers and 83% of brokers were expecting steady or rising freight volumes and pricing through year-end.

But others see a starkly different course well beyond the end of this year. Satish Jindel, president and founder of SJ Consulting and ShipMatrix, described these predictions as “wishful thinking”.

“Demand won’t come because they’re praying for it,” he commented, pointing to uncertainty and macroeconomic pressures. As for expectations of the Trump administration’s trade policy spawning a surge in US-based manufacturing, this would not show an impact in less than two years, he added.

According to transport intelligence firm FTR, volumes have not changed much and are unlikely to show a jump any time soon. Its analysts predict dry van loads to end the year 0.6% down, followed by a decline of 0.3% in 2026 before rising 2.3% in 2027.

FTR VP of trucking Avery Vise thinks that a substantial cut in capacity is necessary to send the truckload sector back to recovery.

“We still have this very real overhang of small carriers who are not exiting the business,” he said, adding that large trucking firms have reined in capacity, which leaves them with no room for further reductions.

The big players make up only about 15% of the truckload market, so their impact is limited, Mr Jindel noted.

He thinks capacity reduction could be only part of the answer.

“In truckload still 30% of the capacity is wasted,” he said. “It requires co-ordination and sharing of date [to change this in a meaningful way], but they don’t trust each other,” he said.

As for improving margins, FTR predicts rate increases under 2% this year and next. Mr Jindel thinks truckers can count themselves lucky if they get away with a 2% rise in charges.

Even that would spell doom for them. According to one industry executive, costs have climbed over 5% in each of the past three years. Mr Jindel remarked that an operating margin of 6-7% was “hardly enough to cover costs”.

There is broad agreement that the economics will force more small and mid-sized players out of the market. A large portion of operators with 200-700 trucks are one big accident or one big customer declining to renew a contract away from trouble, commented Matt Parry, SVP of account management at Werner Enterprises.

Smaller players have folded or been taken over during the past two years, but so far this has made no discernible dent in capacity. Mr Vise estimates that, barring a black swan event, it will take about 18 months of continued uncertainty to bring about substantial change. He does not expect an improvement of the situation before 2027.

“It’s going to be a bumpy next 12-18 months,” Mr Parry agreed.

This view is echoed in the truck manufacturing sector. Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America, does not expect a recovery in the Class 8 tractor demand in North America before the fourth quarter of next year.

Still, in all likelihood there will be another prediction of the trucking turnaround soon.