News / Conflict has cost Middle East airports $1bn

April showed indications of partial recovery, with 312,000 tonnes handled, but that is still 43% below last year.

These are among the major findings of  “a comprehensive assessment of the operational and economic impact of the ongoing military conflict in the Gulf on regional aviation infrastructure in Middle East”, by Flare Aviation Consulting, commissioned by the regional branch of Airports Council International.

The restriction of Gulf airspace effectively removed nearly 20% of all east-west connecting capacity from the global aviation network within hours – “an event of systemic significance for international air transport,” the assessment noted.

The nine airports sustained a combined revenue shortfall of between  $900m and $1bn over the two months as passenger and cargo volumes fell 55% on budgeted target.

ACI described the loss as being “of exceptional magnitude” for “an industry characterised by regulated margins, fixed cost structures, and long-term capital commitments tied to infrastructure programmes”.

As to the outlook for traffic at Middle East airports, recovery is expected to follow a gradual “swoosh-shaped” trajectory – a slow initial rebound followed by a longer, gradual climb back to baseline – rather than a rapid rebound, the airport trade association noted.

And continuing airspace restrictions, security risks, and elevated fuel prices are likely to weigh on demand and airline capacity.

The pace of recovery will also depend on coordinated airspace reopening, clearer regulatory guidance, stabilisation of fuel markets, and the ability of Middle Eastern carriers to rebuild networks and restore customer confidence.

The return of passenger services is of particular importance to air cargo, given that more than 50% of global shipments are transported in the bellyholds of pax aircraft.

At a recent webinar, Ben Lambert, DHL Global Forwarding’s VP, regional head of airfreight, Middle East & Africa, highlighted that while the volume of cargo handled at the region’s airports was on the rise – it remained well below pre-crisis levels.

He said the “big movers”, in terms of tonnage recovery, were Dubai airports DXB and DWC, along with Doha. 

Meanwhile, two of the region’s airports experienced a surge in cargo traffic during the hostilities – Riyadh, in Saudi Arabia, and Muscat, in Oman. Both continue to serve as back-up hubs for DHL.

At the beginning of last month, the integrator launched a thrice-weekly freighter service between Liège and Jeddah, in Saudi Arabia, offering 100 tonne+ capacity, dedicated to pharma and life science cargo, with onward distribution across the GCC. And this month, DHL replaced Jeddah with DWC as the flight’s destination after the re-opening of Dubai airspace.

Stefano Baronci, ACI’s regional director general, said that against a backdrop of renewed upward pressure on jet fuel prices, longer routings driven by geopolitical tensions, persistent supply bottlenecks, and chronically elevated inflation, the aviation ecosystem in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East was showing its resilience.

But he warned: “We are at a critical juncture, since protracted instability over the summer may have a far more negative impact on the economic sustainability of the airport sector.”