Comment / AI hardware props up air freight – spare a thought for the downside

ID 445035348 © Giuseppe Lombardo | Dreamstime.com

Key takeaway: Semiconductor shipments have quietly become the dominant engine of air cargo growth, masking an e-commerce slump and keeping transpacific load factors at their practical ceiling. The market’s dependence on a single demand driver should be keeping forwarder CFOs awake at night.

For the first half of 2026, the air freight market has done something few predicted at the start of the year: it has outperformed.

Global demand rose 4% year-on-year through June, comfortably ahead of forecasts. Spot rates ...