News / A calmer transatlantic as box carriers balance supply and demand

Following a turbulent 2025 and early 2026, marked by shrinking volumes and rates, the transatlantic trade has stabilised, but with a sharp surge in pricing.

Container Trades Statistics’ (CTS) data for the first four months of the year highlight this trend. On the Europe to North America leg, the 1.69 million teu carried represented a year-on-year fall of 2.3%.

However, the rate of decline slowed, from -3.5% in March, year on year, to just 0.2% down in April compared with the same month last year.

And CTS’s Europe to North America Price Index highlights a rally in rates, from 84 in January to 96 in April.

Capacity cuts are a major factor in the strengthening of the market. ACL president and CEO Andrew Abbott believes the main contrast to 2025 is that supply and demand are more evenly aligned.

He told The Loadstar: “Several carriers have taken steps to reduce capacity, and westbound volume has increased instead of falling, as one would have expected from the impact of high tariffs and a weaker dollar. Put these two factors together and the supply and demand balance is noticeably better than it was a year ago.

“We had expected and budgeted for doom and gloom in 2026, back in November, but we’re having a surprisingly good year so far.”

Adam Johnson, director at Tudor International Freight, added: “We’re seeing signs that peak season dynamics have arrived earlier than expected on the transatlantic trade, with firmer rates and tighter capacity compared with the start of the year…From a forwarder’s perspective, there is still capacity available, but it’s becoming more selective and requires a proactive approach to secure reliable services.”

Carriers are still being disciplined with capacity. Xeneta’s eeSea data shows that this month there are 47 services on the transatlantic, down from 50 in April and May, and 54 in January.

Linerlytica’s latest data shows there is 998,893 teu across 168 ships on the headhaul leg. This is down 2% month on month and -1.2% year on year.

As well as capacity cuts, widespread emergency fuel surcharges are also a factor behind the surge in rates, as carriers battle higher costs. VLSFO prices in both Rotterdam and New York remain elevated, sitting roughly 45% to 50% higher than seen earlier this year.

But capacity adjustments and fuel surcharges do not provide the full picture behind the rise in rates.  Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand believes shipper perception that capacity is tight has been a major factor.

He told The Loadstar: “Carriers played the capacity management game in January and February. They have kept on communicating this message regardless of the fact that demand is not growing. This is a good example of the fact that shippers have so much on their mind right now, trying to juggle multiple disruptions, that carriers have had the upper hand in pushing through rate increases in early April.”

Xeneta’s rates data shows North Europe to US east coast average short-term rates have jumped 53.27%, from $1,530 in December to $2,345 this month.

A sign that there is a shift from ‘restricted’ to ‘greater’ capacity is the move from frequent blanked sailings in Q1 to none (as of 9 June). In the lead-up to April, Xeneta data shows carriers blanked 17,600 teu on a weekly basis, and from April onwards blanked 3,400 teu weekly. But since mid-May, there have been no blanked sailings.

Looking ahead to the next few months, the transatlantic market will likely soften, but remain fundamentally stable. Category manager of overseas logistics at chemicals and plastics manufacturer Solvay, Alessandro Menezes said: “Demand across the Atlantic feels lacklustre to me, and the early-year rally appears to be losing steam. I anticipate that the transatlantic trade is entering a period of ‘calm summer’ moderation.”

He added: “While global spot market sentiment might push transatlantic rates slightly higher during the peak summer months, I expect overall demand to remain soft enough that these increases will likely have a minimal impact on long-term contract rates.”