News in Brief Podcast | Week 25 2026 | Surcharges and software outage
This week on News in Brief, host Charlotte Goldstone is joined by The Loadstar‘s managing editor, ...
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Europe is edging towards a jet fuel supply crisis, as disruption in the Middle East tightens global availability, threatening airport operations.
Ten days into a fragile two-week ceasefire, there is still no diplomatic breakthrough, after talks in Pakistan ended without agreement, and tensions continue over the Strait of Hormuz, the artery for around 20% of global oil flow.
The result is mounting volatility in oil markets, with Brent US benchmark WTI crude today hovering around $90.78 a barrel.
But the real pressure point is not price, but physical supply – particularly of jet fuel.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global jet fuel demand averaged 7.8m barrels a day last year, the Gulf supplying roughly 20% of traded volumes, followed by refineries in Korea, India and China – but these are themselves highly dependent on Middle East crude.
The IEA estimates there was a net reduction of 200,000 barrels a day in Q1, versus pre-conflict levels, potentially worsening to 500,000 barrels a day fewer in Q2.
Europe is especially exposed. The Middle East typically supplies up to 75% of the region’s jet fuel imports, feeding major aviation markets like3 the UK, Germany, France, Spain, Turkey and Italy.
Weekly data showed inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub dropped to the bottom of their five-year range in early April, having been above this range in early February.
Airports’ industry association ACI Europe told the EC on 10 April that a “systemic” jet fuel shortage could emerge if Hormuz did not reopen within three weeks; and the IEA noted that European stock – typically around 37 to 38 days at the start of the year – was expected to fall to around 30 days by mid-year.
Shortages could begin if stock falls below 23 days’ worth, triggering flight cancellations – a threshold that could be breached as early as June, if Europe fails to replace at least half of the lost Middle Eastern volumes, according to the IEA’s April report.
Even in more optimistic scenarios, the market remains tight: replacing 75% of supply would delay shortages until August, while even 90% replacement would see inventory at a fragile 26 days by year-end.
And alternative supply routes are proving insufficient. Imports from the US are rising, but even if all these additional volumes were destined for Europe, that would still only make up a little over 50% of the lost volumes from the Middle East, according to the IEA.
“European markets will need to work harder to attract further replacement cargo from elsewhere, if sufficient inventory is to be maintained over the summer months,” it said.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said today: “The IEA’s assessment of potential jet fuel shortages is sobering. We have also estimated that by the end of May we could start to see some cancellations in Europe for lack of jet fuel. This is already happening in parts of Asia.
“Along with doing everything possible to secure alternative supply lines, it’s important that authorities have well-communicated and well-coordinated plans in place in case rationing becomes necessary, including for slot relief.”
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