Maersk eyes 'cut and run' moves as port congestion brings delays
Maersk has advised it may have to resort to “cut and run” tactics to make ...
HD: DIY RE-PRICINGZIM: A RISING TIDE LIFTS ALL BOATSTSLA: CHINA THREATDAC: KEY REMARKSDAC: SURGING GM: SUPPLY CHAIN WOESMAERSK: ROTTERDAM TEMPORARY SUSPENSION OF OPERATIONSATSG: OWNERSHIP UPDATERXO: COYOTE FILLIP GONEGM: SUPPLY CHAIN HITBA: CUT THE FAT ON THE BONER: STEADY YIELDMAERSK: SELL-SIDE UPDATESDAC: TRADING UPDATE OUT SOONTSLA: FEEL THE PAIN IN CHINAWMT: GUESS WHATXPO: SURGINGAMZN: LOOKING FORWARD
HD: DIY RE-PRICINGZIM: A RISING TIDE LIFTS ALL BOATSTSLA: CHINA THREATDAC: KEY REMARKSDAC: SURGING GM: SUPPLY CHAIN WOESMAERSK: ROTTERDAM TEMPORARY SUSPENSION OF OPERATIONSATSG: OWNERSHIP UPDATERXO: COYOTE FILLIP GONEGM: SUPPLY CHAIN HITBA: CUT THE FAT ON THE BONER: STEADY YIELDMAERSK: SELL-SIDE UPDATESDAC: TRADING UPDATE OUT SOONTSLA: FEEL THE PAIN IN CHINAWMT: GUESS WHATXPO: SURGINGAMZN: LOOKING FORWARD
Despite positive ceasefire developments, stakeholders should not expect container lines to immediately return to using the Suez Canal ,due to a “highly unpredictable year”.
Sunday’s ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas led to a Houthi statement that they would cease attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, other than on ships owned by Israeli companies or flying the Israeli flag.
But shipping analyst Drewry urged that “we should not expect to see container lines rush to return to the Suez Canal”.
As market intelligence platform Xeneta noted, carriers want assurance that the situation will not suddenly deteriorate before re-routing.
“An agreement to pause fighting does not necessarily mean a large-scale return of containerships to the Red Sea… there is still a long way to go before a real peace deal is reached,” it said.
Indeed, while yesterday it was reported yesterday that CMA CGM could be eyeing a return to the Red Sea route for its Europe Pakistan India Consortium (EPIC) service, the French carrier assured The Loadstar that this was not yet the case.
It said: “CMA CGM Columbia will sail through the Suez Canal to the port of Jeddah as part of a single ad hoc call. Vessels on the EPIC service will not systematically sail through the Suez Canal.
“CMA CGM is closely monitoring the developments in the region and hopes for a return to stability and safety for all.”
Drewry advised that most carriers would “wait to see how things develop and will need to be utterly convinced that the threat of attack has been eliminated before they consider a return to Suez transits” – a timeline, it said, that would take “months rather than weeks”.
Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand noted the length of time it had taken to achieve stability for Cape diversions, “so carriers will be wary of heading back to the Red Sea too soon”, he added.
“If it goes wrong, they’re back to square one. Therefore, an immediate large-scale return is highly unlikely,” he said.
Aside from safety concerns, Matthew Gore, partner at law firm HFW, also highlighted that “it’s a big undertaking to re-route and reschedule container shipping”, given the fixed nature of the schedules and the timing of new alliances to take effect in the coming weeks.
And as the major carriers start phasing in the new east-west networks, Drewry noted: “They will not want to disrupt the operational transition only to then have to redraw them again should events take an unwanted darker turn.”
Meanwhile, the looming threat of overcapacity presents another volatile factor Drewry suggests will discourage carriers from hastily returning to the Suez Canal.
This threat to their profits, paired with a new administration in the US threatening harsh tariffs on imports, puts supply and demand in a delicate balance.
Drewry said: “As much as carriers can edit the supply side of the equation, they do not have any influence over demand, which has as many question marks hanging over it.
“The biggest wildcard is unquestionably the return of Donald Trump as US president,” it concluded.
But one less headache for container shipping, Mr Gore pointed out, was that it would not be the first maritime sector to return to the Red Sea with tankers and bulk vessels likely to ‘test the water’ first.
Listen to this clip of Henrik Schilling, MD global commercial development at Hapag-Lloyd, speaking to loadstar Podcast host Mike King about shipping’s orderbook and planning for a return to Suez:
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