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Dr Sultan Al-Jaber, the beleaguered COP28 president, has provoked controversy once again by stating that science does not support a complete cessation of fossil fuels by 2050.
“There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5ºC,” he said.
“A phase-out of fossil fuel, in my view, is inevitable, it is essential. But we need to be real, serious and pragmatic about it.”
His point is a reasonable one, but badly made. That fossil fuels will still be pumped, drilled or mined by 2050 is certain. According to McKinsey research published today, even net-zero, the scenario which assumes mass adoption of carbon capture and storage (CCS) – and which does not mean the same thing as ‘zero’ – will cost $9.2tn in annual spending, or around 12 times the annual US military budget.
If it turns out to work, speedy implementation of CCS would be undeniably sensible, saving enormous cost in embodied carbon from replacing all existing fossil energy infrastructure, like-for-like, with renewable energy or nuclear.
But, as the French saying goes, avec des si, on mettrait Paris en Bouteille – “with enough ‘ifs’ we could put Paris in a bottle”. Excitement surrounding CCS should be tempered by the fact that it is currently providing negligible return on billions of dollars’ worth of public and private investment.
A sensible appraisal of its effectiveness is hampered by dishonest hype and exaggeration, and in the meantime, enormous resources are being diverted from harnessing renewable energy, which is drastically cheaper to build.
In some cases, the cap-ex cost of building new wind and solar is more economical than the op-ex of continuing to run existing fossil powerplants, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). This would make it a lot cheaper than running them with CCS.
And us as well
Over the weekend, a group of shipping’s customers joined Cargo Owners for Zero Emission Vessels (CoZEV). These included Mondelēz International, Flexport, Meta, Nestle, Royal Coffee, Standing CT and Trek Bikes, meaning that 35 freight buyers are now pledging only to use zero-emission shipping by 2040.
The news follows a call from shipowning giants on Friday for new global regulation demanding a curtailment of emissions from shipping.
“This year, the maritime industry has demonstrated progress towards a zero-emission future through new investments in dual fuel vessels and at ports, offtake agreements for more climate-friendly fuels, and signals from policymakers of renewed interest in policy support for the nascent ZE shipping market,” said Ingrid Irigoyen, CoZEV director.
In a separate development, yet another UN branch is getting involved with COP28. In a speech yesterday, the World Health Organization (WHO) pointed out that 62,000 heat-related deaths occurred last year across 35 countries, as well as 7m deaths being annually attributable to air pollution.
And a speech by UN secretary-general António Guterres yesterday called for a windfall tax on fossil fuel companies, to pay for some $3bn in hardening shorelines against rising sea levels and tropical storms increasing in frequency and severity, “a tiny fraction of the hundreds of billions made by the fossil fuel industry last year”.
The Loadstar’s coverage of COP28 is sponsored by EVERGREEN LINE: leading the development of a sustainable global container transportation system
To find out more about EVERGREEN LINE’s sustainability strategy please click HERE
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