CMA CGM/AF-KLM set forwarder boundaries for air cargo partnership
“The moment we get closer to Ceva, we are out of the game.” So said Adriaan ...
French logistics operator Gefco has shelved plans to launch an initial public offering (IPO) on the Paris Euronext exchange.
Reuters reported this week that the company had decided to delay the IPO “until market conditions improve”.
The group is 75% controlled by Russian Railways and 25% by carmaker Peugeot (PSA), and last month said the former was looking to reduce its stake to below 50%.
And PSA is likely to reduce its own holding to less than 10% after deciding “the increasingly diversified client list of the logistics operator” meant it no longer needed such a large stake.
This month, The Loadstar’s financial analyst, Alessandro Pasetti, wrote that the IPO could have valued Gefco at around €2.1bn if came in at a mid-range pricing point, and after stripping out its debt that meant an equity value of €1.8bn, making it one of the largest IPOs in the logistics sector in the last five years and one “to watch closely”.
He said: “Based on the assumptions powering my model, the IPO range is €1.6bn-€2.1bn, which is based on zero growth, but also, crucially, doesn’t factor in the typical discount at IPO to attract investors.
“Stamp on a growth rate double that of western inflation, and the mid-point earnings valuation (EV), based on constant multiples, rises to €2.35bn, assuming constant margins. Then, assume a rise in its clean ebitda margin to 9% and its EV surges to €3bn, excluding any IPO discount. Dreamland territory, if you ask me.”
He added: “Standalone, it could be an outlier too, although automotive is under the spotlight due to massive layoffs and restructuring plans announced by the major original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) worldwide.”
EXCLUSIVE: Indian digital forwarder Freightwalla shuttered
Peak season hopes dashed as freight rates slip again
Panama Canal restrictions could halt US coastal shift
Shippers hold back on contracts amid uncertainty and ample capacity
DB Schenker – sale, float, nothing
Airlines that adapt quickly will survive likely freight pain in H2
Carriers look for trade mix to stay in the black
Box lines look to slash their bloated equipment pools
Pessimistic Yang Ming to refocus on 3PL, terminals and yards
Freight slump does not stop US inland ports’ advance
Digital forwarder Freightwalla's failure reveals home truths
Comment on this article