News / Ex-Asia airfreight rates start to hit peak season levels as capacity tightens

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Air cargo spot rates have hit a new height in the first week of September, as the industry braces for transpacific-heavy demand in Q4.

Average global spot rates went up 6% in week 36, according to WorldACD, 30% higher than a year earlier. Asia-Pacific origin rose 6% week-on-week while the Middle East and south Asia went up 7% – 41% and 101% higher year-on-year, respectively.

Contract rates also went up 3% week-on week, marking a 16% year-on-year rise – and 51% higher than the same week in September 2019.

“We are already full,” Jeffrey Van Haeften, Emirates SVP cargo commercial worldwide, told the EU CBEC conference this week. “This year, demand will be much higher, and therefore we really believe whatever we do in capacity, it will be an issue.”

Rob Veltman, VP cargo Europe for Qatar Airways, told delegates: “Right now the rates are going up overall, because there is a shortage of capacity. That will go on for a while. People are still buying. There is heavy inflation everywhere in a lot of countries, so people want to buy cheap stuff on the internet. So we are catering for that towards the peak season. What will happen afterwards, we will see.”

Forwarders told The Loadstar that they are expecting a challenging Q4 in air.

“It looks like it’s going to be bananas with capacity restraints versus demand. The charter market seems mental. From what I can see, it’s real and it’s coming,” one told The Loadstar. “India and China to the US looks screwed, same to Europe.”

Freightos noted that the increase in demand has already started. “The surge in ecommerce volumes moving by air is now having an impact beyond China, with reports of congestion at air hubs in Korea, Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines even before the expected demand increase in Q4. “

It added that its air index saw rates from China to North America reach $5.82/kg last week, and $3.45/kg to Europe: “Levels typically reserved for peak season.”

WorldACD added: “Among the biggest price increases in week 36 was a +18% WoW jump in spot rates from China to Europe, to $4.39 per kilo – one of the highest levels this year.

“Spot rates from Thailand to Europe surged by a further +14%, WoW, to $3.73 per kilo – a rise of more than one-third (+34%) in just three weeks – taking Thailand to Europe spot rates to almost double (+86%) their level this time last year.

“Average spot rates from Asia Pacific to the USA crept up by a further +3%, WoW, to $6.16 per kilo – the highest level for several months, and a YoY increase of +64%.”

Lufthansa Cargo this week released its winter timetable, increasing its 777F connections and adding a transpacific route. A weekly rotation will connect Frankfurt with Ho Chi Minh and Los Angeles, its first direct transpacific flight. It will also add frequencies to its destinations in China and India to “accommodate the continued growth in e-commerce shipments”.

A spokesperson for the carrier told The Loadstar: “We expect a strong fourth quarter … and a continuation of Q3, ie strong routes between India-Europe and Asia Pacific-Europe, but for Q4, also healthy connections with the Americas.

“We are optimistic about the market, although it is difficult to predict.”

Tom Owen, DG for Cathay Cargo, however, noted the huge imbalances in traffic at the ecommerce event.

“We lock in quite long-term contracts far out, so you only have some left to fill during the peak. The challenge though that ecommerce brings of course is that it’s very directional. So we’ve got massive challenges overall as an industry, trying to work out what to do when these planes arrive and have to come back again.”