News / Rising prices and front-loading depress LatAm-to-N America trade

Ocean spot rates from South America to North America have climbed, led by a surge in pricing from Brazil to the US, where rates for 40ft containers jumped 50%, to $3,000 last month.

The increase is not a reflection of strong trade growth, though. Observers have attributed it chiefly to factors that point in the opposite direction – the impact of higher fuel prices, front-loading to beat looming US tariffs and tight capacity after carriers had cut sailings in response to a weakening market.

The most recent data from CTS show northbound volume fell 9.6% in April, from the previous month, to 225,400 teu, following a 13.4% month-on-month drop in March. Northbound volume was in contraction through the first four months of the year.

Southbound traffic fared somewhat better. After month-on-month growth of 4.9% in February and 1.4% in March, CTS registered a 4.1% drop in April, the first contraction this year.

Bilateral trade between the US and South America’s largest economy declined 14.3% in the first five months of the year. Brazil’s exports to the US dropped 14%, while traffic in the opposite direction was down 12.6%. Actually, May marked a 14^th consecutive monthly decline of Brazilian exports to the US.

The South American nation’s exporters have taken steps to diversify their business. Brazil’s overall exports in May were up 8.7% year on year. The trade agreement between Mercosur and the EU indicates further growth in Brazil’s transatlantic exports down the road.

At the same time, the signals for US trade have deteriorated further. Washington recently completed a Section 301 investigation into alleged unfair trade policies and practices, which concluded with US trade representative Greer proposing as 25% tariff on imports from Brazil.

It should be noted, though, that the proposal includes a raft of exemptions for products, including coffee and tropical fruits as well as aircraft parts and fossil fuels. By some estimates, the tariff would hit less than 30% of Brazil’s exports, mostly industrial equipment and machinery.

Still, the move adds friction to the fraught relationship between the two governments and augurs more grief from Brazilian exporters, currently facing a Section 122 tariff of 10% on all traffic from Brazil, which is set to expire on 23 July.

While trade flows have slowed, shippers can take some comfort from the fact that at least ocean carrier performance in the tradelane improved. Sea-Intelligence’s Global Liner Performance June 2026 report shows schedule reliability improved 4.4% month on month in April/May, to 75.3%, an improvement of 12.8% from a year ago.

Southbound schedule reliability actually slipped 0.5% month on month, but was up 11% year on year.

The average delay of late northbound vessels shrank from March/April, by 0.71 days, to 3.29 days, 3.01 days lower than a year ago, while the average delay of all northbound container vessels decreased 0.61 days from March/April, to 0.53 days.

Sea-Intelligence’s six-month trend gauge shows reliability slipping at three carriers, whereas five improved their game, with one line hitting a 100% on-time record, two above 90% and two above 80%.

Latin America’s airborne exports from 1-21 June were 4.3% higher than a year earlier, data from WorldACD show. Exports to North America rose 2.3%, while exports to Europe increased 6.6%. Pricing to North America was 6.9% higher year on year, short of a 10.4% rise in overall pricing from the region.

Capacity to North America has been boosted by the football world cup, which prompted Latin American as well as US carriers to add flights. American Airlines boosted its passenger capacity out of Argentina by 30% with additional flights and larger aircraft connecting Buenos Aires with Miami and New York.