News / Hormuz traffic rises as US-Iran MoU sparks cautious optimism

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Forwarders may be short of confidence following confirmation that the US and Iran have signed a deal to end the war, but there have been green shoots of hope with ocean transits on the up.

Both President Trump and President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed that they had put pen to paper – or pen to touch screen – to sign the document labelled the “Islamabad MoU”, which essentially lays out the foundations for negotiation for a comprehensive deal due by August.

Under the MoU, both sides have agreed to “declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other”.

Further to which, they agreed to “refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon,” with this last point proving particularly concerning for forwarders, with news that Israel has continued to strike Lebanon.

One source pointed The Loadstar to the news this morning that Israeli strikes had resumed against Lebanon with the words “how fucking long?” contending that they did not believe the deal would result in any material change in the short term.

Another forwarding source said that they had been following progress of the negotiations and were left confused as to what the state of play was as a consequence of the announcement made by President Trump in Versailles last night.

And while when pressed on whether they thought that long-term deal would materialise, the forwarder responded with “I honestly do not think that any of this will actually transpire,” there have been glimmers – albeit small – of confidence improving.

A Windward Intelligence assessment noted: “On 15 June, 14 total transits were recorded, marking the highest single day count this month, suggesting confidence is beginning to build, even as the Traffic Separation Scheme is unclear and safety guarantees are not in place.”

Adding to the sense that things are on the up, Windward noted that between 1-15 June there had been 151 Hormuz transits, compared with 156 over the whole of May, “indicating the pace is already accelerating”.

IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguezalso welcomed the Islamabad MoU describing it as a “crucial return to peace, dialogue, multilateralism and diplomacy,” and a move towards the safe restoration of free navigation along the Strait of Hormuz.

Nonetheless, Alphaliner cautioned it is likely that container lines will adopt a “phased rather than immediate normalisation,” adding “carriers that suspended or rerouted Gulf calls are unlikely to restore Hormuz transits until the freedom of navigation is demonstrably secure”.