Container counterfactuals: spot market vs time-charters
Spotting the time-charter correction…
We are quite reluctant sharing twice in a week the findings from the same equity research house, but our previous take sourced from Bernstein – here: ’Looking for nearshoring, finding a mirage’ – was so well received a couple of days ago that we gladly make an exception.
And it’s about the hottest topic in the ocean freight market: how long will strength in spot rates last?
Reading between the lines of Bernstein’s research, not very long may well be answer, but ...
Trump tariffs see hundreds of cancelled container bookings a day from Asia
Macron calls for ‘suspension’ – CMA CGM's $20bn US investment in doubt
De minimis exemption on shipments from China to the US will end in May
Forwarders stay cool as US 'liberation day' tariffs threaten 'global trade war'
Mixed response in US to 'Liberation Day', while China leads wave of retaliation
Tariffs and de minimis set air freight rates on a volatile course
Overcapacity looms for ocean trades – with more blanked sailings inevitable
'To ship or not to ship', the question for US importers amid tariff uncertainty
List of blanked transpac sailings grows as trade war heats up and demand cools
'Chaos after chaos' coming from de minimis changes and more tariffs
East-west rates diverge as transpac spots hold while Asia-Europe keeps falling
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