HEI: What if?

THE HEISENBERG writes:

What if the path to a vaccine is longer than expected?

What if all the posturing and rhetoric between Washington and Beijing finally produces an “accident” with geopolitical and/or market ramifications simply too large to ignore?

What if the US election does, as some fear, go awry, leaving the country in literal leadership limbo, as opposed to the figurative state of D.C. dereliction that persists currently?

Well, it’s entirely possible that the US dollar and Treasurys would catch a serious bid in any of the above scenarios.

This underscores the paradox of the greenback and US debt — they are the only real safe-havens when push comes to absolute shove, which is why one of the main beneficiaries in the event of a US downgrade (for example) would likely be the very same obligations being downgraded.

I’ve spent quite a bit of time recently suggesting that America’s failure to get control of COVID-19 is precipitating dollar weakness by raising the odds of the US trailing the rest of the world on the path to economic recovery, thereby ensuring that fiscal and monetary largesse continue apace to the presumed detriment of the currency.

That’s what unfolded in July, when the doll…