COP-out: 'one of the most chaotic in recent memory' draws to a close

© Bagwold

Distressing news: what began as a platform for a fruitful and productive global discussion has been co-opted by billionaires, renamed ‘X’ and become unusable.

But enough about Twitter.

Over the past two weeks, COP29’s purpose was to agree on an annual $1.5 trillion of green financing for developing countries, incentivising them to follow a renewable energy strategy which would enrich their economies, create jobs and generate wealth in a green Keynesian push.

In yesterday’s drafts, where that number should have been $1.5tn, there was an ‘X’ (as in ‘X amount’), leaving it open to be whittled down to just about anything – or nothing.

A more recent draft, out today, ‘decides’ it’s $250bn, just one-sixth of what was being asked for, but ‘calls for’ a finance target of $1.3trn (by 2035).

As the close of COP29 approaches, it is still unclear whether this will be accepted.

Meanwhile, a pledge made at last year’s COP, of a ‘phase-down’ in the use of fossil fuels – itself meticulously moderated and watered-down from the initial ‘phase out’ – has come under threat.

Resistance to ‘phasing-down’ has been pursued most aggressively by Saudi Arabia, whose aims at the summit included guaranteeing ongoing demand for its biggest export. As Europe and Asia taper their consumption of Saudi oil, the kingdom hopes to make up the difference by persuading developing countries to adopt a fossil fuel-focused growth pathway.

The UK, EU and New Zealand say the draft deal is “unacceptable”, with Ireland’s minister for the environment, Eamon Ryan, in conversation with journalists yesterday, accusing the summit of “backsliding”.

“There has been an attempt to interpret what we agreed last year as a menu, and actually taking back the language and taking back the commitment. And that has to stop – in the interest of the Arab group too,” Mr Ryan said.

EU commissioner for climate action Wopke Hoekstra called the deal as it stands “unbalanced, unworkable and unsubtle”.

“We encourage parties to continue to collaborate within and across groups with the aim of proposing bridging proposals that will help us to finalise our work here in Baku,” said the Azerbaijan presidency, in a note seen by Reuters.

As has been pointed out, though, Azerbaijan is reliant on oil and gas for 90% of its export revenue, meaning that pushing visiting delegates to accept an inconclusive COP29 outcome is clearly in its national interest. But it is unlikely that negotiations will end today, continuing into the night and almost certainly into the weekend.

Campaigner Mohamed Adow, director of climate and energy think-tank Power Shift Africa, called Azerbaijan’s COP leadership “one of the worst in recent memory”, and the event itself “one of the most poorly led and chaotic COP meetings ever”, in remarks to The Guardian.

“Developing countries are going to have to prepare themselves to walk away from COP29, if the package on the table doesn’t improve,” he said. “It can and must improve, otherwise no deal.”

Aiming to strike a hopeful chord, BBC climate editor Justin Rowlatt noted that “the economics of clean energy have transformed” across the COP summits. He is right. Observe the shipping industry: one that has relentlessly pursued every avenue of cost saving, whether it coincides with a CO2 emissions reduction or not.

Today, vast ships sail with proportionately tiny engines at the slowest possible speeds, staffed by crew from countries with the lowest labour costs and using the lowest and cheapest grades of fuel. Yet witness the relish with which the shipowners now race to harness sail power, and trim their outgoings to an even more granular and obsessive degree.

Once, the governments of developing economies were chastised for not exploiting the liquid gold under their feet; but today those resources are exploited, and survey ships laboriously comb the seabed hundreds of kilometres from land, looking for more oil in ever deeper reaches of ocean.

Today’s gold is blowing in the wind, or beaming down from the skies; more is waiting in the rivers, estuaries, tides and currents. Norway powers itself using water running down its fjords; Brazil, from the surging Amazon; in Iceland, geothermal heat bursts from the earth’s crust faster than residents can think of a use for it. And one square mile of the Arizona desert sees enough sunshine to power all the United States.

Mr Trump may wish to “drill, baby, drill”, blowing open the tectonic fissures on which his nation stands, but he will soon find the costs associated with doing that drastically undercut by those of throwing up some wind turbines and solar panels on the surface, as China – a mounting embarrassment to the US – is doing.

In time, perhaps even Saudi Arabia, a country with 2.3 million square km of sun-blasted equatorial desert, will identify some other avenue of economic development besides oil.

“In many countries renewable tech now provides the cheapest energy in the history of humanity… the expectation now is the bulk of the cash the developing world is demanding will come from private investors,” wrote Mr Rowlatt.

“It means the transition away from fossil fuels won’t be driven primarily by moral or environmental concerns any more, but something much more powerful: the desire for private profit”.

The Loadstar’s coverage of COP29 is sponsored by EVERGREEN LINE: leading the development of a sustainable global container transportation system.

To find out more about EVERGREEN LINE’s sustainability strategy please click HERE