News / Ocean spots ride a wave of conflict, congestion and aggressive pricing

Container freight spot rates on the transpacific and Asia-Europe diverged this week as the full reopening of China after its new year holiday coincided with fresh market volatility from the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.

Although both the main east-west trades largely operate independently of Middle East Gulf supply chains, the impact of the conflict is likely to extend to other trades as it persists, and one transpacific forwarder told The Loadstar on the sidelines of the S&P Global TPM event in Long Beach that carriers had since adopted a far more aggressive pricing approach to annual contract negotiations.

They said offers for 2026 were some $1,000 per 40ft above current spot rate levels on the Far East-US west coast and Far East US east coast routes.

That may have been the factor behind Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) seeing a 10% week-on-week jump on its Shanghai-Los Angeles leg, to $2,402 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-New York route was up 7% on the previous week, to end at $2,977 per 40ft.

However, forwarders on the transpacific trades added that rates of around $1,500 to the US west coast and $2,500 to the east coast were also available and showed a “stabilisation” of post-CNY pricing, rather than strong upward movement, as demand remained muted.

“Current shipments consist primarily of leftover inventory, referred to as ‘breadcrumbs’, from before the holiday shutdown, rather than a fresh surge of new orders,” US west coast forwarder Freight Right noted.

Meanwhile, Drewry said it expected transpacific rates “to increase in the coming weeks” as post-CNY traffic fully resumes.

“According to Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight, only four blanked sailings have been announced for the next week on the transpacific east and west coast trade routes, many fewer than this week, as factories gradually return to full production after the CNY,” it said.

Meanwhile, the Asia-Europe trades mostly appeared unaffected by the geopolitical volatility this week, with the WCI’s Shanghai-Rotterdam leg dropping 2% week on week, to end at $2,052 per 40ft, while Shanghai-Genoa gained 1%, to finish at $2,844 per 40ft.

However, it was a mixed picture, according to Xeneta’s short-term rates data, which noted that China-UK spot rates were up 9% since the onset of the conflict, and Drewry expected spot rates to rise as post-CNY traffic resumes

“Since volumes typically rebound in March as factories across Asia reopen, carriers have started planning capacity induction, with only four cancelled sailings announced on the Asia–Europe/Med trade route over the next two weeks.

“Hence, we expect spot rates on this trade to increase in the coming weeks,” it said.

And Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand warned shippers and forwarders that mounting congestion in key Asian transhipment ports was likely to also impact near-term pricing.

“Alternative ports are not equipped to deal with a sudden increase in volumes arriving against chaotic schedules, so severe congestion is expected,” he said.

“Port congestion ripples across supply chains, so major transhipment hubs in Asia, such as Tanjung Pelepas and Singapore, will be impacted.

“Ripple effects are also seen in freight rates, with the most significant increases found on trades closest to the epicentre of conflict,” he added.

According to Xeneta, China-Salalah rates are up 28%, and China-Colombo rates up 17%, since the start of the conflict.