Insights for 2025 procurement planning

As procurement professionals gear up for the 2025 tender season, volatility in global ocean freight markets continues to present challenges.

When is the right time to sign the next long-term contract?

Which carrier do you work with, given the alliance reshuffle in 2025?

How can your strategy be impacted by disruptions such as strikes, wars and tariffs?

Should you focus on all corridors at once, or concentrate on those which are used to ship the most essential supplies?

Could an index-linked contract be the best option to provide a level of control during times of volatility? (More and more shippers are coming round to this way of thinking).

There are no easy answers to these questions.

And it will depend very much on individual circumstances and supply chain needs. But don’t just cross your fingers and hope for the best.

As noted in Xeneta’s Ocean Market Outlook for 2025, understanding shifting trade dynamics, carrier alliances, and leveraging real-time market intelligence will be crucial to navigating this turbulent landscape. Here are six key insights from the report aimed at helping procurement teams make informed decisions and optimize their freight strategy in 2025.

1. Supply chains will continue to be impacted by Red Sea conflict in 2025

As it stands, “a large-scale return to the Red Sea seems inconceivable, but a partial return may be possible at some point in 2025. This will throw up an intriguing market dynamic with shippers facing the choice of utilizing trades with shorter transit times via the Suez Canal or sticking with carriers who continue to divert around the Cape of Good Hope” – Emily Stausbøll, Senior Shipping Analyst, Xeneta

China-affiliated ships are at the lower end of the risk scale, meaning they may return sooner than their European counterparts. Either way, shippers should expect ongoing diversions around Africa, which will continue to strain the system and leave little capacity to absorb additional shocks.

Procurement Takeaway: Particularly in times of market volatility, it’s imperative you consider not only the number of containers moved, but also the TEU-mile demand, which factors the distance each container is transported.

The image above shows ships over 8 000 TEU diverting around the Cape of Good Hope on 8 October 2024 (source: Xeneta and Marine Benchmark

2. Global Demand vs. Carrier Capacity

The global ocean freight market is expected to see uneven demand across trade lanes in 2025. This imbalance between supply and demand will challenge procurement teams to find optimal rates while maintaining service quality. With many carriers adjusting their networks due to fluctuating container shipping demand and geopolitical risks, spot rates will likely remain unpredictable.

Procurement Takeaway: Spot market volatility will require procurement professionals to stay ahead of rate fluctuations. Utilizing real-time freight intelligence can offer transparency, enabling better planning for tenders and reducing the risk of procuring market-high costs in unstable markets.

3. Carrier Consolidation and Alliances

The focus on reliable ocean freight solutions has never been more pressing. Enter the Gemini Cooperation, a partnership between two shipping giants, Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk, set to launch in February 2025. According to Sea-Intelligence, global schedule reliability has remained stable at 50-55% in 2024, which makes Gemini Alliance’s promise of a 90% schedule reliability rate, significant. For procurement teams seeking stability in a volatile market, this development holds promise, as well as some skepticism.

Procurement Takeaway: Consider what’s more important to your business operations – securing the lowest freight rate, or ensuring the right goods are delivered on time. Carriers in strong alliances may be more costly, but offer more consistent services, making them preferable partners for businesses that prioritize supply chain stability.

4. Environmental Regulations Impacting Costs

In 2025, shipping companies will be increasingly affected by stricter environmental regulations. Compliance with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) 2023 carbon intensity standards and future decarbonization goals will drive up operational costs for carriers, which could lead to higher freight rates and EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) surcharges. Procurement teams will need to evaluate how carriers are responding to these regulations and whether their sustainability efforts align with cost-saving goals.

Procurement Takeaway: In partnership with Marine Benchmark, the Carbon Emissions Index (CEI) is a first-of-its-kind data solution, showing you the carbon intensity of transport work carried out by the world’s leading carriers across 48 main global trade lanes.

5. Back door to the US will remain open in 2025

The China to Mexico trade has been in the spotlight in 2024 with TEU-demand growth increasing 22.1% year-to-date compared with 2023 (Jan-Aug). This follows full year-on-year growth of 34.6% in 2023.

One of the key reasons is found in the cooling relations between China and US, with Mexico being seen as a backdoor to avoid import tariffs and other barriers to trade. Looking ahead to 2025, demand is expected to increase further on this trade.

Procurement Takeaway: Another trade lane to watch is China to the Middle East where volumes are 52% up from 2021.

6. Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Lane Shifts

Shifting trade dynamics in regions like the Middle East and Southeast Asia are influencing global freight patterns. Geopolitical tensions, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, conflicts in the Red Sea and changing trade policies post-US elections, could continue disrupting critical trade lanes. Procurement professionals need to be prepared for sudden route changes, which could impact both shipping costs and lead times.

Procurement Takeaway: To mitigate risks from geopolitical disruptions, procurement teams should diversify their carrier partnerships and trade routes. Freight intelligence platforms can provide real-time insights into shifting trade lane conditions, allowing procurement teams to pivot quickly when disruptions arise.

Preparing for the 2025 Tender Season

If 2024 has taught us anything, it’s that ocean freight intelligence platforms are no longer a luxury.

They’re a necessity.

With market conditions evolving rapidly, procurement teams need access to real-time data to optimize tenders, avoid inflated rates, and ensure they’re working with the most reliable carriers.

Most importantly, you will move yourself into a stronger position by focusing on the following:

1. Benchmarking Rates: Stay informed on rate movements across various trade lanes and utilize market intelligence to optimize your supply chain and negotiate more effectively with Logistic Service Providers, strengthening relationships longer-term.
2. Focusing on Reliability: As increased shipping costs filter through supply chains, UN Trade and Development’s Review of Maritime Transport 2024 estimates that global consumer prices could increase by 0.6% by 2025. Consider prioritizing service reliability to deliver goods on time and retain customer loyalty.
3. Anticipating Cost Increases: Account for potential cost hikes due to environmental regulations and geopolitical risks.
4. Trust Data Over Rumors: With so much noise in the industry, sharing industry reports such as the 2025 Ocean Outlook can help you gain alignment from your financial partners and internal stakeholders.
5. Diversifying Carrier Partners: Spread your risk by working with multiple carriers and monitoring trade lane shifts.
6. Leveraging Data: Invest in a robust freight intelligence platform that offers real-time visibility into rate fluctuations, service reliability, transit times and capacity changes.
7. Review the 2025 Ocean Outlook: understand the shifting dynamics of global trade ahead of 2025 budgeting with Xeneta data, industry insights and ocean market forecasts from senior shipping analysts Peter Sand and Emily Stausbøll.

Freight intelligence is the key to navigating an increasingly complex global market, offering the insights needed to make smarter, data-backed decisions. By aligning with the above strategies, procurement teams can expect to not only optimize their tender processes for 2025, but also build more resilient and cost-effective supply chains.

For a more detailed analysis of 2025 ocean market trends, download your copy of the 2025 Ocean Outlook report here.