News / Trump tariff threat could see shippers launch new wave of import front-loading

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A perfect storm of supply chain disruptors, on top of the imminent ‘Trump tariffs’, could mean a rush of imports by US shippers to bolster their stock and some to “re-evaluate sourcing decisions”.

Senior manager of container research at Drewry, Simon Heaney, told The Loadstar: “I think shippers were ahead of the curve in bringing forward shipments this year… and the confirmation of this resounding election result will definitely see more of the same.”

Indeed, one multinational US shipper told The Loadstar: “For areas of our business that are sourcing from China, I’m sure they will lead our purchasing organisation to re-evaluate their sourcing decisions based on new foreign goods costs, inclusive of tariffs.”

Mr Heaney warned that this frontloading could be amplified, not only by Chinese New Year, “which always draws a cargo rush”, but also the start of the new carrier alliance networks around the same time, which “history suggests can be mildly disruptive from an operational perspective as they bed in”.

Xeneta’s senior shipping analyst, Emily Stausbøll, told The Loadstar the upcoming CNY would “not be normal”, due to shippers changing their behaviour in response to disruptions.

“For shippers importing goods from the Far East to Europe, the frontloading of imports we have seen during 2024 may mean they have built up enough inventoy to lessen the need for a pre-lunar new year rush,” she said.

But she added that “it could be a different scenario for US importers”.

“They still have potential threats looming in the form of new tariffs on Chinese imports and potential further strike action at ports on the US east coast and Gulf coast in January.

“If US shippers need to prepare for lunar new year while they are also dealing with port strikes and the introduction of new tariffs, then it is going pile on even more pressure,” she added.

But Mr Heaney noted that there was a “significant information gap”, in terms of the starting point for any new tariffs, their magnitude and how many trading partners they will apply to, “although we can safely assume that China will be most affected”, he said.

“What Donald Trump says and does are not always the same thing,” added Mr Heaney.

President-elect Trump has vowed to implement tariffs of up to 20% on all imports into the US and additional tariffs of 60% on goods from China.

“Oxford economists are working on the assumption that his across-the-board tariffs statements were merely a negotiating tactic. Instead, they think, he will only add some targeted tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada and the EU, with implementation at the start of 2026 and phased-in over the course of the year,” explained Mr Heaney.

But he advised: “The point is that no-one outside his team really knows what he is planning, so it makes sense for shippers to start preparing as early as possible to cover all possibilities.”

Xeneta agreed: “If you have warehouse space and the goods to ship, frontloading imports is the simplest way to manage this risk in the short term.”

The crowd-sourced analytics platform also warned that any sudden increase in demand on major tradelanes into the US would add pressure on freight rates and available capacity on some lanes.