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Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL GFF, writes on LinkedIn:

These are without a doubt uncertain times we are facing, both on a private and professional level. Though it’s clear to which disruptive event I’m referring, please allow me to delve a bit deeper. Usually, we would have released the latest update of our DHL Global Trade Barometer (GTB) in the last few days. For those who are not yet familiar with our GTB, let me explain it in a nutshell. DHL Global Trade Barometer (GTB) is a unique early indicator of both the current state and future development of global trade.

It is based on selected and aggregated market data from air and containerized ocean freight, accounting for more than 75 percent of world trade. The data is compressed into an index that forecasts how global trade will develop in the next three months. Everything above the index value of 50 represents growth in global trade. Since its launch in early 2018, the tool has proven its accuracy, reliability, and credibility.

However, the GTB – as a very early indicator – is unable to predict the impact of such disruptive events as COVID-19. To avoid presenting an inaccurate picture, we have decided to postpone the release of the GTB update for the second quarter of 2020. It will take some time to collect and analyze the data showing the initial impact of COVID-19, and even then, we won’t be able to predict the full extent of the consequences – but we will at least have a first impression.

To read the full post, please click here.

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