News / Trump or Harris: who will be better for revision of US trade deal with Mexico?

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North American supply chain stakeholders near-shoring to Mexico have increased opportunities for the region’s trucking sector, but the upcoming change of US president could jeopardise – or encourage – trade relations.  

Since former president Donald Trump replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in July 2020, Mexico has become the US’s number-one trading partner. 

Kenneth Smith Ramos, Mexico’s former lead negotiator for the USMCA and partner at AGON consulting, said: “In promoting trade and investment flows, the agreement is clearly working. We’re seeing investments flow into Mexico.” 

Mexico has become the near-shoring trend frontrunner, displaying “unbelievable growth” according to the chief economist and SVP international trade & security policy at the American Trucking Associations, Bob Costello, due to its low-cost manufacturing, road networks to the US and government incentives. 

“The data on US inbound trucks highlights the near-shoring that is going on,” said Mr Costello, who noted that trucks transported 70% of US-Mexico trade, by value, compared with 56% of US-Canada trade. 

However, Mr Smith Ramos said the USMCA was due for revision in 2026, which would be led by either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris as the next POTUS.  

According to his “traffic-light” assessment of the impact of a Trump or Harris administration on US-Mexico relations, Mr Smith Ramos suggested a Harris administration could be marginally better for trade relations, due to her similar political ideology to that of Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum.   

But he warned that both candidates’ aggressive campaign against reliance on China could either boost near-shoring to Mexico or could see the country “caught in the trade war crossfire between the US and China”. 

he explained: “Mexico has replaced China in the US market, but at the same time the US is now turning to Mexico and is worried about all the investment China is planning to do in Mexico. This could be an issue for the 2026 review.” 

Further, both candidates are looking to prevent illegal fentanyl imports, which could present issues for customs procedures and inspections.  

Indeed, Lak Shoan, director of policy andindustry awareness programs at the Canadian Trucking Alliance, said this was a “sore point” that needed to be addressed during the 2026 review of USMCA. 

“In terms of joint inspections and customs processes, having multiple examinations done by different agencies at different times continues to be a sore point. Streamlining some of the requirements would definitely create more efficiencies at the border,” he said.

Mr Shoan added that there also needed to be an acceleration in the issue of visas for drivers who need them, something that would “reduce costs and bureaucracy for transport operators”, according to an IRU spokesperson.