Bust-to-boom-to-bust: the cyclicality of air cargo growth patterns
The global air freight market has been in positive growth territory for about one year ...
AAPL: SHIFTING PRODUCTIONUPS: GIVING UP KNIN: INDIA FOCUSXOM: ANOTHER WARNING VW: GROWING STRESSBA: OVERSUBSCRIBED AND UPSIZEDF: PRESSED ON INVENTORY TRENDSF: INVENTORY ON THE RADARF: CEO ON RECORD BA: CAPITAL RAISING EXERCISEXPO: SAIA BOOSTDSV: UPGRADEBA: ANOTHER JUMBO FUNDRAISINGXPO: SAIA READ-ACROSSHLAG: BOUYANT BUSINESS
AAPL: SHIFTING PRODUCTIONUPS: GIVING UP KNIN: INDIA FOCUSXOM: ANOTHER WARNING VW: GROWING STRESSBA: OVERSUBSCRIBED AND UPSIZEDF: PRESSED ON INVENTORY TRENDSF: INVENTORY ON THE RADARF: CEO ON RECORD BA: CAPITAL RAISING EXERCISEXPO: SAIA BOOSTDSV: UPGRADEBA: ANOTHER JUMBO FUNDRAISINGXPO: SAIA READ-ACROSSHLAG: BOUYANT BUSINESS
Demand for airfreight out of Asia-Pacific was above the global average in June – and there are suggestions that the momentum will continue potentially well into 2025.
Both the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) and IATA put volume growth for the region well into double digits, with AAPA recording a year-on-year uptick of 16.4%, measured as freight tonne km (FTK), while IATA recorded growth of 17%.
Sources told The Loadstar they were “not surprised” by the performance, considering the continuing surge in demand for e-commerce shipments in the region.
AAPA director general Subhas Menon said: “A pick-up in export activity coupled with disruptions to maritime shipping drove an increase in air freight volumes carried across major tradelanes.
“Cargo markets are poised for further growth in the latter half of the year, driven by sustained momentum in the global economy, despite some uncertainties in the geopolitical landscape.”
Breaking down June performance, IATA noted that Africa-Asia trade surged 37.5% on the same month last year, while Europe-Asia, Middle East-Asia and inter-Asia flows climbed 20.3%, 15.1% and 21%, respectively.
Listen to this clip from the latest episode of The Loadstar Podcast to hear Alex Lennane discussing IATA’s CASS fail:
Against this backdrop, rates have continued to soar, with WorldACD recording a 2% week-on-week rise for the week commencing 15 July.
At an average of $3.34 per kg for Asia-Pacific exports, the index said this left rates some 25% up on the same period last year, while Asia-Pacific to US spots were up 67%, at $6 per kg, “despite a drop in demand from China to the US in the last two full weeks”.
China-US tonnage fell 8% year on year, the drop “particularly noticeable” on the China-Los Angeles route, falling 23% and continuing a three-month trend of decline.
Away from Asia-Pacific, other regions fared well, with North America the only one missing out on double-digit volume growth, up 9.5% year on year in June, with Africa (+11.8%), Europe (+16.1%), Latin America (+13.1%) and the Middle East (up 13.8%).
IATA director general Willie Walsh said: “Strong growth across all regions combined for a record-breaking first-half performance, in terms of FTKs.
“Maritime shipping constraints and booming e-commerce are among the strongest growth drivers. Meanwhile, the sector has remained largely impervious to ongoing political and economic challenges and the US customs crackdown on e-commerce deliveries from China.
“Air cargo looks to be on solid ground to continue its strong performance.”
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