Comment / Broken pattern: the unreliable GDP-teu multiplier

ID 19562259 © Andreykuzmin | Dreamstime.com

Forecasting future container shipment volumes is set to get even harder after recent Sea-Intelligence Consulting calculations revealed that the much-venerated relationship between box traffic and GDP trends appears to have been utterly broken.

Reality 

“As of August 2023, global demand has a shortfall of 6.8% compared to a growth pattern which would have followed global GDP growth. This is not good for the carriers, which are in the process of taking delivery of a sizeable orderbook,” Sea-Intelligence chief executive Alan Murphy wrote ...