News / 'Book short, stay flexible' as ecommerce evolution looms

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Air freight shippers and forwarders on the Asia–Europe trade are bracing for renewed volatility as the EU prepares to scrap its de minimis exemption for ecommerce shipments on 1 July. 

Milena Milenkovic, head of airfreight EMEA at Flexport, warned in a webinar update that the regulatory change could distort demand patterns in the coming months, as shippers rush to avoid higher duties. 

“We expect air freight rates to stay elevated, and potentially another spike somewhere at the end of May and throughout June, because the de minimis exemption for ecommerce in Europe is being cancelled from 1 July. 

“That means that ecommerce could potentially flood the market, because they would likely want to ship their cargo before the deadline to avoid paying higher duties,” Ms Milenkovic warned. 

But according to her, the EU de minimis change “is not just an ecommerce story”, but will have a knock-on effect to other verticals on the Asia-Europe lane.  

“It will create a June cargo surge on Asia-Europe that will affect rates for every other shipper on that lane, whether you sell ecommerce or not.” 

The expected pre-deadline rush comes as capacity is already under strain. According to Maersk, the disruption in the Middle East is still significantly reducing available uplift on the Asia–Europe corridor. 

“Within air freight, Asia-Europe markets remain under sustained pressure as the Middle East situation continues to restrict key transit corridors. With roughly one-third of Asia-Europe air capacity normally routed through the Middle East, the ongoing disruption in the region has significantly reduced available uplift and created wider operational unpredictability across the air freight market,” the carrier said in its latest European market update. 

And while today’s ceasefire developments may soften a possible capacity crunch, the uncertainty of the situation, paired with looming regulatory change. is creating a highly dynamic pricing environment.  

Ms Milenkovic cautioned that traditional contracting strategies may no longer be viable in such conditions. 

“Rates are actually fluctuating dramatically by lane right now and there is no single strategy fitting all. So, for European imports from Far East, we actually do not recommend rate validities that are longer than one month,” she added. 

“The market is simply moving too fast, and whatever you would get on six months or a year, or even in certain cases three months, can simply not be realistic. So, book short, stay flexible, and revisit these rates regularly.” 

Maersk also warned that European importers would face tighter customs scrutiny ahead of the summer peak, as authorities prepare for further digitalisation reforms. 

It noted that increased checks on small parcels were expected to result in more frequent document requests, stricter data verification, and a higher risk of delays for non-compliant shipments. 

The Danish carrier added that this was “raising the stakes for ecommerce operators”, particularly those reliant on high-volume, low-value consignments, urging them to strengthen data accuracy and compliance processes ahead of the Q2 surge. 

As a result, Chinese ecommerce platforms are increasingly deploying inventory closer to European consumers to reduce reliance on cross-border flows and gain lower exposure to customs friction and transport volatility, according to Maersk.  

It added that this “evolution” was reshaping customer expectations, with delivery speed, reliability, and transparency now central to purchasing decisions. As a result, it added, retailers were under growing pressure to deliver seamless experiences despite rising operational complexity.