News / Tariff turmoil casts a shadow over carrier-shipper contract talks

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Industry analysts predict that new tariff rulings are unlikely to trigger a major surge in front-loading to the US, or a dramatic shift in volumes, at least for now – but contracting could be delayed.  

James Hookham, director of the Global Shipper’s Forum, told The Loadstar the most immediate problem for shippers was the temporary nature of the new proposed tariffs from the Trump administration.  

The tariffs, a fresh measure after the Supreme Court ruled IEEPA tariffs unlawful, are set to last just 150 days, until 24 July. The executive order (EO) confirming the 15% tariff  has yet to be issued, so “their actual impact is not yet known”, said Mr Hookham.  

That leaves US importers facing a difficult calculation: continue bringing in orders and pay the new tariffs, or delay shipments in the hope the measures expire or are suspended following further legal action. 

“The answer will vary by country,” said Mr Hookham.  

He explained that for some origins, a 15% tariff represented an improvement on previous rates. But he questioned whether the percentage change was significant enough to justify a rush to beat the 24 July deadline. Any marginal savings, he suggested, would likely be eroded quickly by rising spot rates if demand were to spike. 

Complicating matters further is the lack of clarity over trade agreements announced or negotiated last year, including those involving the UK, EU and, most importantly, China. On paper, the UK’s tariff rate appears to have risen from 10% to 15%, but Mr Hookham speculated that the yet-to-be-issued EO could clarify the status of such deals. 

“That could be why it’s taking so long to issue,” he suggested. 

There is also lingering legal uncertainty over whether the new tariffs have a sound legal basis, but resolving that would require another Supreme Court ruling – a process likely to take months. Few shippers, Mr Hookham said, could afford to hold back cargo for that long. 

And while many expected a demand surge once the IEEPA tariffs were revoked, this might not happen, said Mr Hookham, adding: “I am not hearing talk of front-loading, and we are in the quiet, post-CNY season anyway.”

He thinks US importers will proceed with planned volumes and revisit their strategy in June as they prepare for peak season.  

Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, agreed the current “tariff turmoil” was unlikely to generate significant front-loading, even though tariffs on some Chinese goods are lower than a week ago; and Philip Damas, head of supply chain advisors at Drewry, added that US and European shipper clients were not anticipating a demand surge into the US.  

However, the uncertainty has cast a shadow over long-term contract discussions, particularly for the transpacific. Mr Sand told The Loadstar it was likely that signing long-term contracts would be delayed, as shippers “assess the impact, decide where they will be sourcing from later in the year, and to what extent, in terms of teu MQCs, they can make promises to carriers”. 

He noted that Xeneta was seeing a “sharp increase” in transpacific blanked sailings this week and next, reversing a downward rate trend heading into 2026 and pushing rates up around 1 March.  

Mr Hookham commented: “No doubt there will be another round of GRI announcements to help hype the market, but I doubt they will stick, due to lack of demand and too much capacity.” 

But Mr Sand emphasised that pricing was only one element of negotiations. He said shippers were also focusing on reliability, actual-versus-advertised transit times, and index-linked contracts as tools to manage volatility and bridge the gap between carrier offers and shipper expectations.